Disaster evacuationLooking for ways to predict response to hurricane evacuation orders

Published 28 June 2016

Millions of people will likely be in harm’s way as a new hurricane season unfolds in the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts up to eight hurricanes in the 2016 season, and as many as four major storms with winds of 111 miles per hour or more. What people do – or do not do – to get out of harm’s way is of keen interest to disaster and emergency response officials. Plans and contingencies work best when they are based on reliable predictions.

Millions of people will likely be in harm’s way as a new hurricane season unfolds in the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts up to eight hurricanes in the 2016 season, and as many as four major storms with winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

What people do – or do not do – to get out of harm’s way is of keen interest to disaster and emergency response officials.

Plans and contingencies work best when they are based on reliable predictions. Having a good idea of what people are likely to do, when they’re likely to do it and how they are likely to go about it helps authorities choose the best evacuation strategy. It gives them useful information about what kind of traffic surge to expect and how best to steer it.

UDel says that researchers at the University of Delaware’s Disaster Research Center have been studying evacuation data and predictors for years and have published two new papers that may help to improve prediction models used by emergency planners, leading to more efficient evacuations and possibly saving lives.

DRC includes scientists from multiple disciplines and collaborates with many others around the world. In these papers, they worked with researchers from Cornell University.

It is an interdisciplinary project,” said Rachel Davidson, professor of civil and environmental engineering and co-primary investigator with DRC Director Tricia Wachtendorf on two major National Science Foundation grants that have supported the study. “And we’re working closely with practitioners to make a link from research to practice.”

Sociologists, psychologists, engineers and meteorologists all have been part of the work, as have the Federal Emergency Management Agency, North Carolina State Emergency Management, and the American Red Cross, Davidson said.

The goal is to sharpen planners’ insight on how many people may leave from a given area, when they are most likely to make their move and where they are likely to go.

It is not easy to guess what a human being will do. The brain processes many factors as it moves toward a decision – past experience, perception of risk and how it interprets present conditions, to name just a few. Those factors are hard to pin down in the best, most stable of times, let alone when the winds start to howl and the rain starts to pound.