U.S. social media strategy can use Twitter more effectively to weaken ISIS influence

The study showed that near the end of its reporting period (spring 2015), the number of ISIS supporters active on Twitter decreased while the number of opponents increased. This change coincided with Twitter’s campaign to suspend the accounts of ISIS supporters. Researchers also found that ISIS atrocities such as the burning of the body of a Jordanian pilot sparked a huge upsurge in anti-ISIS tweets.

“Twitter should continue its campaign of account suspensions that harasses ISIS Twitter users, forcing them to lose valuable time reacquiring followers, and ultimately may push some to use channels that are far less public than Twitter,” said Todd Helmus, an author of the report and a RAND senior behavioral scientist.

The study used different network analysis tools and algorithms to identify and characterize the conversation on Twitter about ISIS. For example, researchers found that they could separate supporters from opponents using a simple method: ISIS supporters typically refer to the organization in Arabic as the “Islamic State,” whereas opponents typically use the disrespectful Arabic acronym “Daesh.” They say the method can continue to be used to gauge the worldwide activity of supporters and opponents of ISIS.

Key findings

  • During the study period, ISIS 0pponents generally outnumber supporters six to one
    • ISIS supporters, however, routinely out-tweet opponents, producing 50 percent more tweets per day.
  • Lexical analysis reveals four meta-communities in the Twitter ISIS conversation: Shia, Sunni, Syrian Mujahideen, and ISIS supporters
    • The Shia group condemns ISIS and expresses a positive attitude toward the international coalition and Christians.
    • Syrian Mujahideen (anti-Assad movement) supporters have mixed attitudes toward ISIS and generally negative attitudes toward the international coalition.
    • ISIS supporters highlight positive themes of religion and belonging; insult Shia, the Syrian regime, and the international community; and pursue sophisticated social media strategies to spread their message.
    • The Sunni group is highly fractured along national lines, so different themes resonate differently within this community.
  • Patterns of connection among the meta-communities suggest inroads for influence
    • The core of the Syrian Mujahideen meta-community serves as an important connection between the Shia meta-community, some Sunni communities, and the ISIS Supporters meta-community, who are otherwise disconnected.
    • The Egyptian, Saudi Arabian, and Gulf Cooperation Council communities form the core of the Sunni meta-community, by far more fractured than the Shia, Syrian Mujahideen, and ISIS Supporter meta-communities.
    • Within the Sunni subcommunities, the Yemeni community has the highest percentage of ISIS supporters and is sharply divided between ISIS supporters and opponents.

Recommendations

  • Research institutions should continue to use the model targeting the terms DAESH versus Islamic State for ISIS to gauge worldwide activity of ISIS supporters and opponents. The U.S. government may use such models to test the impact of anti-ISIS programs.
  • ISIS opponents are plentiful but may require assistance from the U.S. State Department, in the form of social media trainings and other engagements, to enhance the effectiveness and reach of their messaging. Of course, with al-Qa’eda and its affiliates counted among the ISIS opponents, care will have to be taken in selecting those suitable to train and empower.
  • Twitter should continue its campaign of account suspensions: This campaign likely harasses ISIS Twitter users, forces them to lose valuable time reacquiring followers, and may ultimately push some to use social media channels that are far less public and accessible than Twitter.
  • U.S. military Information Support Operations planners, as well as State Department messengers, should continue to highlight ISIS atrocities. The Twitter impact of the burning of the Jordanian pilot as well as previous findings suggesting a relation between ISIS atrocities and ISIS opposition on Twitter indicate that such atrocities may galvanize opponents.
  • Nations and organizations (such as U.S. military and State Department messengers) looking to countermessage ISIS on Twitter should tailor messages for and target them to specific communities: The ISIS Twitter universe is highly fragmented and consists of different communities that care about different topics.

— Read more in Elizabeth Bodine-Baron et al., Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter (RAND, 2016)