NukesColin Powell leaked e-mail: “Israel has 200 [nukes], all targeted on Tehran”

Published 16 September 2016

Former secretary of state Colin Powell, in a leaked e-mail, says that Israel has 200 nuclear weapons. Powell sent the e-mail to a colleague last year, and it was obtained by the hacking group DCLeaks and published on LobeLog, a foreign policy blog. Intelligent experts, historians, and journalist trying to estimate the size of Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal begin with estimating the size of the Dimona reactor, which went on line in 1962, and the amount of plutonium that can be extracted from the reactor’s spent uranium rods. In the literature, the number of nuclear weapons Israel is estimated to have ranges from 90-100 to 400.

Former secretary of state Colin Powell, in a leaked e-mail, says that Israel has 200 nuclear weapons. Powell sent the e-mail to a colleague last year, and it was obtained by the hacking group DCLeaks and published on LobeLog, a foreign policy blog.

Newsweek notes that Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying it has a nuclear arsenal. The existence of an Israeli nuclear program, however, and of a sizable Israeli nuclear arsenal, are an open secret.

Intelligent experts, historians, and journalist trying to estimate the size of Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal begin with estimating the size of the Dimona reactor, which went on line in 1962, and the amount of plutonium that can be extracted from the reactor’s spent uranium rods.

This is the relatively easy part. The more difficult part is to calculate how many nuclear bombs Israel has been able to build with that amount of bomb-grade plutonium. The difficulty stems from lack of knowledge about whether Israel prefers fewer bigger, “strategic” nuclear weapons, or more bombs which are smaller, or “tactical.” Israel is also said to have boosted the yield of its nuclear weapons by using tritium and deuterium (heavy isotopes of hydrogen), which would allow it to build more bombs with the same amount of plutonium.

In the literature, the number of nuclear weapons Israel is estimated to have ranges from 90-100 to 400.

Powell was writing to Jeffrey Leeds, a business partner and democratic donor, about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to U.S. Congress, in which Netanyahu openly criticized the nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration.

“Negotiators can’t get what he [Netanyahu] wants,” Powell wrote in the e-mail.

“Anyway, Iranians can’t use one [a nuclear weapon] if they finally make one. The boys in Tehran know Israel has 200, all targeted on Tehran, and we have thousands. As Akmdinijad [sic] [said], “What would we do with one, polish it?” I have spoken publicly about both NK and Iran. We’ll blow up the only thing they care about — regime survival. Where, how would they even test one?”

Powell supported the nuclear deal with Iran, telling NBC’s Meet the Press in September 2015 that it was a “pretty good deal” — but appeared less keen in an e-mail to Leeds a few months later. He told Leeds that he doubted Iran could test out a nuclear weapon “within a year.”

In the leaked e-mail, Powell also acknowledged that sanctions would not be enough to stop Iran if it was determined to develop nuclear weapons.

“They [the Iranians] say, correctly, that they have every right to enrich [uranium] for energy. Russians helped build a power reactor at Busher. Can’t get enough sanctions to break them. Lots of BS around about their progress. Bibi likes to say ‘a year away,’ as do our intel guys. They say it every year. [It] ain’t that easy to do.”

Newsweeknotes that the e-mails reveal another twist: President Ronald Reagan’s former chief of staff, Ken Duberstein, had urged Powell not to publicly support the nuclear deal with Iran, but Powell wrote back to defend it being “good for the country.”

“The Iran deal is a good one for the country and our alliances. Retired generals and admirals popping off. I have studied it pretty thoroughly…I have done e-mails before on TV. Have to deal with ISIS. [Richard] Haass, [David] Petraeus et all claiming to be undecided. BS, they are just protecting their future options. I don’t have or want any. [James] Baker, [George] Shultz know what’s right, as does Henry [Kissinger]. Brent [Scowcroft] showed some guts.”

The Washington Post notes that the Web site which posted the leaked e-mails is linked to Fancy Bear, a Russian military intelligence hacker group, and the FBI is investigating what cyber experts regard as a Russian attempt to undermine the integrity of the U.S. electoral system.