Emerging threatsWorld on track for temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4 degrees this century: UN
Scientists agree that limiting global warming to under 2℃ this century (compared to pre-industrial levels), will reduce the likelihood of more-intense storms, longer droughts, sea-level rise, and other severe climate impacts. To have any chance of limiting global warming to 2℃ this century, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted in 2030 cannot exceed 42 gigatons. A new report finds that 2030 emissions are expected to reach 54 to 56 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, placing the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4 degrees this century.
The world must urgently and dramatically increase its ambition to cut roughly a further quarter off predicted 2030 global greenhouse emissions and have any chance of minimizing dangerous climate change, UN Environment Program (UNEP) said yesterday as it released its annual Emissions Gap report.
Made public the day before the Paris Agreement comes into force, the report finds that 2030 emissions are expected to reach 54 to 56 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent — far above the level of 42 needed to have a chance of limiting global warming to 2℃this century. One gigaton is roughly equivalent to the emissions generated by transport in the European Union (including aviation) over a year.
Scientists agree that limiting global warming to under 2℃this century (compared to pre-industrial levels), will reduce the likelihood of more-intense storms, longer droughts, sea-level rise, and other severe climate impacts. Even hitting the lower target of 1.5 ℃will only reduce, rather than eliminate, impacts.
The predicted 2030 emissions will, even if the Paris pledges are fully implemented, place the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4 degrees this century. Waiting to increase ambition would likely lose the chance to meet the 1.5 ℃target, increase carbon-intensive technology lock-in and raise the cost of a global transition to low emissions.
“We are moving in the right direction: the Paris Agreement will slow climate change, as will the recent Kigali Amendment to reduce HFCs,” said Erik Solheim, head of UNEP. “They both show strong commitment, but it’s still not good enough if we are to stand a chance of avoiding serious climate change.
“If we don’t start taking additional action now, beginning with the upcoming climate meeting in Marrakesh, we will grieve over the avoidable human tragedy. The growing numbers of climate refugees hit by hunger, poverty, illness and conflict will be a constant reminder of our failure to deliver. The science shows that we need to move much faster.”
The need for urgent action has been reinforced by the fact that 2015 was the hottest year since modern record keeping began. The trend is continuing, with the first six months of 2016 all being the warmest ever recorded. Yet emissions continue to increase, the report says.
