Battle for MosulWho’s Who in Mosul: A guide to the most important battle in the fight against ISIS
On 17 October, the Iraqi government officially declared its plans to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State, more than two years after the city was captured. Unfortunately, winning will require cooperation many different parties. The Shiite government of Iraq, as well as the country’s Shiite militias, both want to be involved in the recapture of Mosul. So do Sunni actors, which include Iraqi tribes, Turkey, and the Kurds. And then there are the forces of the Yazidis and Christians.
On 17 October, the Iraqi government officially declared its plans to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State, more than two years after the city was captured. Unfortunately, winning will require cooperation many different parties. The Shiite government of Iraq, as well as the country’s Shiite militias, both want to be involved in the recapture of Mosul. So do Sunni actors, which include Iraqi tribes, Turkey, and the Kurds. And then there are the forces of the Yazidis and Christians.
The Iraqi national army is under great pressure to succeed in Mosul, as failing would weaken the national government and strengthen the militias. The government has gathered over 50,000 troops for the battle. An effective attack in Mosul, using the minimum number of Shiite militiamen, would mean less dependence on Iran, because the militias essentially function as Iranian proxies on the ground.
The militias are collectively called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), and comprise about 100,000 fighters in total, although only 14,000 or so are taking part in the Mosul attack. The PMFs are largely Islamists who want to establish a Shiite theocratic regime in Iraq. They view the Iraqi forces as weak and unable to protect the country, and would like to have a similar role in a future Iraq as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have in Iran.
The Sunni Arab tribes view the PMFs as a threat to their people, with an intent to further deepen sectarian divides by brutally enforcing Shiite domination of Iraq. Although the Shiites are the majority in Iraq, the Sunnis are predominant in the north and west of the country, which includes Mosul.
The Turks have also insisted on participating in the fight for Mosul — Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sent 2,000 troops into the area, and have rejected Baghdad’s demand that they withdraw. Turkey considers Mosul as part of its own territory, dating back to the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans lost Mosul in 1926 with the League of Nations granting the rights to the British Mandate in exchange for economic concessions. The Turks also want to be the regional protector of Sunni interests.
