Most home-grown terrorists in U.K. come from London, Birmingham

In eight cases the individual was already in detention at the time of offense (for individuals in immigration detention at the time of arrest, the study used the previous place of residence) Two individuals arrested together were German nationals detained on arrival in the United Kingdom on suspicion of terrorism offenses.

One table in the study shows the proportion of offenses in each time period that were committed by individuals from the various regions in the United Kingdom. While they broadly mirror one another, four regions saw a decrease in the proportion of individuals living there responsible for 2011–2015 offenses compared to 1998–2010 offenses. They are London, which saw a 13 percent decrease between the time periods, from 49 percent to 36 percent, and Yorkshire and The Humber, which saw a 4 percent decrease, from 8 percent to 4 percent, as well as South West England and Northern Ireland, which saw decreases of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

Seven regions saw an increase in the proportion of individuals living there responsible for 2011–2015 offenses compared to 1998–2010 offenses. They are the West Midlands, with an 8 percent increase between the time periods, from 15 percent to 23 percent; North West England, with a 3 percent increase, from 9 percent to 12 percent; the East of England, also with a 3 percent increase, from 2 percent to 5 percent; the East Midlands and Wales, both with a 2 percent increase, from 2 percent to 4 percent; and South East England, with a 1 percent increase, from 4 percent to 5 percent. The proportion of IROs committed by individuals living in Scotland did not change (at 2 percent) across both time periods.

The two most commonly represented regions, London and the West Midlands, saw the two largest percentage point differences between 1998–2010 offenses and 2011–2015 offenses. The difference is inverse between the two, and it is possible to identify a general trend whereby the primacy of London-based offending remains but has decreased.

Community
There is little correlation between involvement in terrorism and educational achievement and employment status, and the majority of offenses were committed by those living with their partner and children or, increasingly, at their family home. These findings challenge common stereotypes of terrorists as well-educated and middle-class or as isolated loners. Deprivation and segregation findings also raise difficult questions about how extremism can take root in deprived communities, many of which have high levels of segregation and limited access to local services. The data supports the proposition in a 2016 review into opportunity and integration that divided communities with poorer social and economic opportunities can be vulnerable to extremism (The Casey Review: a review into opportunity and integration, U.K. Department of Communities and Local Government, 5 December 2016).

Behavior
While analysis of pre-offense behaviors shows that there is no one profile for engagement with Islamism-inspired terrorism, some trends can be identified. Offenders commonly consumed extremist and instructional material prior to, or as part of, their offending. Much of the pro- jihadist material accessed promotes “them and us” thinking, dehumanization of the enemy, and attitudes that justify offending – all factors identified in the vulnerability assessment framework used in the government de-radicalization program Channel to describe “the mindset that is associated with a readiness to use violence.”

Accessing instructional material, typically bomb-making manuals, can also be indicative of individuals seeking to develop their capability to cause harm, another dimension to vulnerability assessment framework. Establishing direct links to proscribed terrorist organizations or travelling abroad for terrorist training or combat experience demonstrate both intent and capability and are behaviors more commonly seen among those responsible for the most serious attack-related offences than all other offences.

Most offenders were previously known to the authorities through a variety of terrorism- and non- terrorism-related channels, including through a criminal conviction. While a wide range of criminal offences preceded offenders’ engagement with terrorism, some (typically those associated with al- Muhajiroun) displayed escalatory anti-social and criminal behavior prior to offending. Conversely, offenders are increasingly less likely to be known to the Security Service, which, coupled with the increased prevalence of smaller cells and individualistic offending, suggests a rise in terrorism cases that feature shorter lead times to offending and fewer opportunities for identification.

Lone wolves
Offences inspired by, but not connected to, a proscribed terrorist organization more than doubled, suggesting a decline in command and control terrorism. Attack-related offenses almost halved, while convictions for travel-related offenses increased. Proportionally, attacks (planned or otherwise) against civilians and military targets were more prevalent among later offenses, while attacks on critical infrastructure declined. While proscribed terrorist organizations are increasingly able to inspire individuals to attempt low-tech and violent attacks, the type and level of threat remains complex, and more sophisticated bombings remain the most popular method of attack.

Convictions
Convictions for preparation for terrorist acts nearly tripled across the time periods, owing in part to Syria-related travel, while dissemination of terrorist publications more than tripled, reflecting the increasing role of the internet in jihadist propaganda. The findings suggest an increase in disruptive policing, utilizing both less serious terrorism-related offences as well as other criminal offenses. The report notes that as the latter were not captured in the sample examined by the report, this would be a productive area for future research.

Deradicalization
Analysis of common sites of inspiration and facilitation appears to corroborate current counter-radicalization policy priorities such as restricting terrorist and violent extremist material on the internet, supporting at-risk sectors, and empowering families to safeguard against extremism. The internet was cited as a major site for inspiration in an increasing proportion of offenses. Institutions and sectors remain significant, with the education sector, local authorities, and prisons a feature in half of offences. Charitable and faith-based organizations were also a prominent, yet declining, feature. Offenders were predominantly part of networks, formed in person and online, with friends and families – only one in ten offences was carried out by someone who acted entirely alone who had no extremist connections. Local mosque representatives and family members were most commonly among those who had been concerned by behaviors which indicated offenders’ engagement with extremism prior to their offending.

Key findings

• The data examined in the report relate to a base total of 269 individual offenses. Variables studied include offenders’ sociodemographic information and behaviors prior to offending, as well as offense-specific information. Convictions resulting from arrests between 1998 and 2010 are also compared with those resulting from arrests between 2011 and 2015.

• The majority of the Islamism-inspired threat to the United Kingdom remains from “home-grown” terrorism. Young British men were most prevalent among offenders, while, although small, women’s involvement nearly trebled in recent years. Analysis of offenders’ residence shows the primacy of London- and Birmingham-based individuals, as well as higher than average relative deprivation and Muslim population at neighborhood level. There is little correlation between involvement in terrorism and educational achievement and employment status, and the majority of offenses were committed by those living with their partner and/or children or, increasingly, at their family home.

• Religious converts were disproportionately involved in Islamism-inspired terrorism. Offenders commonly consumed extremist and/or instructional material prior to, or as part of, their offending. Three-quarters were previously known to the authorities through a variety of terrorism- and non-terrorism-related channels, including through a criminal conviction. Proportionally, fewer offenders had engaged in behaviors that brought them to the attention of the Security Service in recent years, despite fewer engaging in counter- surveillance. Establishing direct links to proscribed terrorist organizations or travelling abroad for terrorist training or combat experience are behaviors more commonly seen among those responsible for the most serious attack-related offenses than other offenses.

• The rate of offending doubled across the time periods and there was an increase in serious offending by small cells. Offenses inspired by, but not connected to, a proscribed terrorist organization more than doubled, suggesting a decline in command and control terrorism. Attack-related offenses almost halved, while convictions for travel-related offences increased four-fold. Proportionally, attacks (planned or otherwise) against civilians and military targets were more prevalent among later offenses, while attacks on critical infrastructure declined. Convictions for preparation for terrorist acts nearly trebled, owing in part to the conflict in Syria, while dissemination of terrorist publications more than trebled, reflecting the increasing role of the internet in jihadist propaganda.

• The internet was cited as a major site for engagement with extremism and inspiration in an increasing proportion of offenses. At the same time, offenders were predominantly part of wider networks, formed in person and online, with friends and families – only one in ten offenses was carried out by someone who acted entirely alone and had no extremist connections. Institutions remain significant, with the education sector, local authorities, and prisons a feature in half of offenses. Charitable and faith-based organizations were also a prominent, yet declining, feature. Local mosque representatives and family members were most commonly among those who had previously been concerned by behaviors which indicated offenders’ engagement with extremism prior to their offending

— Read more in Hannah Stuart, Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offenses and Attacks in the I.K.(1998-2015) (1998-2015) (preview) (Henry Jackson Society, March 2017); and infographics of the key findings