CrimeVisitors contribute to rise in the crime rates of cities

Published 31 March 2017

When a city district is said to have a “high crime rate,” it’s often assumed the criminals are “insiders,” people who live in the area. But what if the criminals are actually outsiders, people who live somewhere else? Researchers looked at Montreal police crime data on people charged with or awaiting charge for property or violent crimes in the federal census year 2011. Their conclusion: An increase in visitors not only increases the number of crimes, it also results in more residents in these high-traffic areas getting involved in crimes. In other words, a city’s “crime rate” reflects the criminality both of the people who live there and of those who don’t.

When a city district is said to have a “high crime rate,” it’s often assumed the criminals are “insiders,” people who live in the area. But what if the criminals are actually outsiders, people who live somewhere else?

That’s what University of Montreal criminology professor Rémi Boivin is trying to figure out. In a new study, published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Boivin takes a novel approach to analyzing violent and property crimes using police and population data.

UdeM says that Boivin, with co-author Marcus Felson of Texas State University, looked at Montreal police crime data on people charged with or awaiting charge for property or violent crimes in the federal census year 2011. The researchers wanted to see how many were residents of the area where the crime was committed and how many were just visiting.

Then, using data from a telephone survey on the transportation habits of 156,000 people in and around the city in 2013, the researchers estimated how many had come for a specific type of activity: recreational (e.g. going to nightclubs and bars), shopping, work or education (going to school).

Their conclusion: An increase in visitors not only increases the number of crimes, it also results in more residents in these high-traffic areas getting involved in crimes. In other words, a city’s “crime rate” reflects the criminality both of the people who live there and of those who don’t.

The novelty of this paper is we focus on visitors,” Boivin said. “Criminologists have been studying so-called ‘ambient’ populations for about a decade, but we try to push that a little further. When it comes to crime, it’s always good to know how many people are doing it, but we also need to know who they are.”

“Visitors matter”
Following up on a previous study Boivin published in 2013 in the Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, he and Felson had an advantage over researchers in the U.S., where precise residency data is almost impossible to come by, and even over researchers in most Canadian cities, where transportation survey data is not collected.