Repeat performance: Russia’s French connection

Macron, a 39-year old former investment banker who served as an economic adviser to President Francois Hollande from 2012 to 2014 and then, from August 2014 to August 2016, as the Minister of the Economy, Industry, and Digital Affairs, is the French version of a Clinton Democrat – or a Tony Blair Laborite. Critical of onerous government regulations and high taxation rates, he is a supporter of an open economy and an open society. He advocates the free flow of capital, goods, and people, to be achieved through free trade, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, and generous immigration policies. He is pro-EU, pro-NATO, and pro-U.S. As is the case with both Blair and the Clintons (Bill and Hillary), his views on foreign policy contain a certain moral dimension, leading him to be a tough critic of Russia and Putin.

He supports, for example, tightening the sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Crimea and incursions into Ukraine.

Putin did not want Hillary Clinton in the White House, and he does not want Emmanuel Macron in the Élysée Palace.

But Le Pen, Putin’s preferred candidate, is not going to make it.

By any measure, Fillon is far from being a Le Pen-like populist. He is a true Gaullist – even more of a Gaullist than the last two presidents representing the Gaullist movement, Jacques Chiraq (1995-2007) and Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012). Fillon, who grew up in a rural area outside Le Mans, in the Pays de la Loire region west of Paris, is deeply Catholic, holds traditional views on social and cultural issues, and follows the Gaullist foreign policy line. Skeptical of the United States, uneasy with an EU which is too centralized and governed from Brussels, more of a realist in his attitude toward foreign powers, not given to the kind of preachy moralizing Blair would be comfortable with, and seeking an independent role for France on the world stage. His manner is reserved, some would say aloof, and his urbane air and preference for expensively tailored suits have led critics to complain that he lacks the common touch. Unlike most other leading French politicians, he is fluent in English. He is regarded as an Anglophile, and his wife, Penelope, née Clarke, is from Llanover, Wales (Francois Fillon’s younger brother, Pierre, an ophthalmologist, is married to Penelope’s younger sister, Jane).  

If Putin cannot have Le Pen, Fillon is much preferable to Macron.

This is why we should not be surprised to learn that over the weekend, France’s Polling Commission has issued a warning over a Russian news report suggesting Fillon leads the race for the presidency, contradicting the findings of all the other polls.

The latest polls show that in the first round, Macron would receive 25.6 percent to Le Pen’s 25.2 percent. Fillon lags behind with 17.58. The Socialist Party’s Benoit Hamon is projected to receive 11 percent in the first round, and the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon would receive 14 percent. The rest is divided among several fringe parties.

The Russian government-run propaganda outlet, Sputnik, on 29 March offered different polling numbers, running them under the headline: “2017 presidential elections: the return of Fillon at the head of the polls.”

The report quoted Moscow-based audience research firm called Brand Analytics, which claims that its findings are based on an analysis of French social media.

France Soir quotes Sputnik as saying that Brand Analytics’ “poll” shows Fillon leading in the first round by getting 23.6 percent to Macron’s 23.1 percent, and Le Pen’s 20.9 percent.

The French Polling Commission responded by pointedly noting that the “study” referred to by Sputnik – if it were even conducted — could not be described as a scientific public opinion poll, as defined by French law.

“It is imperative that publication of this type of survey be treated with caution so that public opinion is aware of its non-representative nature,” the Polling Commission said.

France Soir notes that Sputnik published an earlier Brand Analytics survey from mid-February, which also showed Fillon with a lead over Macron and Le Pen – while other polls were showing that Macron was beginning to extend his lead over Fillon.

Analysts say that Sputnik published the 29 March story in order to encourage supporters of Fillon to come to the polls by showing them that Fillon has a chance to make it to the second round. Also, many of those who plan to vote for Macon tell pollsters that the only reason they will do so is to block Le Pen. The Sputnik story may encourage unenthusiastic supporters of Macron to reconsider Fillon as a viable alternative. All polls show Fillon beating Le Pen handily in the second round – the problems he has are in the first round, where the anti-Le Pen vote is divided among several candidates.

Sputnik’s report about the Brand Analytics’ poll is only the latest story in a sustained disinformation campaign the Putin government and its organs have conducted against Macron. Last Friday, for example, Sputnik carried a news story about Macron, reporting that when he was a high-level economic adviser to Hollande and, later, the minister of the economy, he handed out state medals and decorations to his political supporters. Sputnik said that these medals and decorations may be regarded as influence peddling.

Sputnik, however, offered no proof that Macron had actually selected the individuals to be awarded, rather than merely making a speech at the award ceremony. Moreover, Sputnik failed to mention that most of the awards cited in the article were awarded by the by Ministry of the Economy during the tenure of Macron’s predecessor, Arnaud Montebourg.

The similarities between the anti-Macron campaign being conducted by the FSB and the GRU in France, and the anti-Hillary campaign the two Russian intelligence organizations conducted in the United States last year, do not end with disinformation. The French security services are now examining Russian hacking attacks against the Macron campaign computer systems. The attacks were discovered in February.

“There are hundreds if not thousands of attacks on our computer system, our database and our sites, and by chance this happens to come from the Russian border,” Richard Ferrand, a Socialist MP who serves as Macron’s campaign manager, told France 2 TV. “We want a strong Europe. That’s why we are suffering from attacks from several information sites belonging to the Russian state.”

He added: “We ask the highest authorities of the French state to make sure there is no Russian meddling in the campaign.”

Ferrand said that the Macron campaign’s digital infrastructure has been subjected to about 4,000 hacking attempts a day – all originating from Russia.  

Politico reports that Ferrand drew parallels between the situation in France and the campaign against Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Ferrand called on France’s security agencies and political organizations alike to be watchful: “Ne laissons pas la Russie déstabiliser la présidentielle!”

Ben Frankel is the editor of the Homeland Security News Wire