Scientific challenge: Better preparation for volcanic eruptions

Based on these research priorities, the committee identified three overarching grand challenges for advancing volcano science and monitoring:

Forecasting the size, duration, and hazard of eruptions by integrating observations with models
Current forecasts are based on recognizing patterns in monitoring data. These approaches have had mixed success because monitoring data do not capture the diversity of volcanoes or their evolution over time.  An approach based on models of physical and chemical processes, informed by monitoring data, as is done in weather forecasting, could improve the accuracy of eruption forecasts.  Such an approach requires integrating data and methodologies from multiple disciplines, the report says.

Quantifying the life cycles of volcanoes and overcoming our current biased understanding
Current understanding of a volcano’s life cycle is skewed because only a small number of volcanoes are studied. Extended monitoring from the ground, sea, and space can overcome some of these observational biases, the report says. Expanding and maintaining monitoring capabilities and supporting the infrastructure to make historical and monitoring data available are critical for advancing understanding of volcanic processes and assessing volcanic hazards. The committee noted that emerging technologies such as inexpensive sensors, drones, and new micro-analytical geochemical methods are promising tools to provide new insights into volcanic activity.

Building a coordinated volcano science community
Close to 100 volcanoes erupt somewhere on Earth each year. Strengthening multidisciplinary research, domestic and international research and monitoring partnerships, and training networks can help the research community maximize scientific advances that result from the study of eruptions around the world, the committee said. 

The report cites the ongoing eruption at Bogoslof volcano in Alaska as an example that highlights these three challenges. A remote, initially submarine volcano in the Aleutian Island arc, the eruption started in late December 2016 and the activity has been continuing as of February 2017. In just one month, the volcano produced numerous explosions with plumes rising 20,000-35,000 feet, posing a significant hazard to North Pacific aviation. The U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has been relying on distant seismometers, satellite data, infrasound, and lightning detection to monitor the activity because there are no ground-based instruments on the volcano. The committee said AVO has been able to provide early warning for only some of these hazardous events. This eruption also underscores the limited understanding of magma eruption. In more than twenty discrete events, the emerging volcano has reshaped its coastlines repeatedly, providing snapshots of volcano-landscape interactions.

— Read more in Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing (NAS, 2017)