More capable hurricane decision support platform helps emergency managers
The ultimate goal of modernizing the NHP is to provide emergency managers a platform like HV-X that enables timely and accurate evacuation decision making information. DHS S&T also partnered with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT-LL) to develop “cascading” interfaces. These interfaces can be layered onto one another, allowing emergency managers to better see and use a variety of sources like forecasts, storm tracking, satellite and radar images, etc., when making decisions. Data analytics are used to provide impact assessments based on the emergency managers’ local evacuation zones. In addition, embedded training capabilities using simulated storm tracks and forecasts provide guidance and feedback, letting emergency managers improve preparedness.
The new ability to layer disparate information sources gives emergency managers a better operational picture. In the case of Hurricane Matthew, flooding was so widespread that several feet of standing water was reported as far as forty miles away from the storm’s center. HV-X incorporates flood reports and shelter alerts that will allow emergency managers to make the best recommendations for evacuation plans. Traffic forecasting tools incorporated in HV-X like DHS S&T’s Real Time Evacuation Planning Model (RtePM) estimates the time required to evacuate a specific area. The ability for emergency managers to properly assess how long it can take people to evacuate to a safe, dry area could ultimately save lives.
End-user input was crucial in developing HV-X. S&T conducted more than fifty interviews with federal, state, and local stakeholders to define what would be most beneficial on the platform. As development continued, DHS S&T solicited further feedback through nationwide user group meetings of emergency managers from FEMA and the National Hurricane Center. A beta version of HV-X was released in July 2016, with 10 updates since. More than 200 registered users of the current functional prototype HV-X will also provide suggestions for improvements to further refine the platform. A fully operational system is scheduled to go live to the operational community in May 2018.
“The new evolution to HURREVAC will be successful in real operations across hurricane-prone regions because DHS S&T listened to what emergency managers needed, first and foremost,” said FEMA Director of Planning and Exercises, Response Directorate Josh Dozor. “This program has capitalized on subject matter expertise and created a platform that will help our operators make the difficult decisions needed to save lives.”
Unlike past systems, HV-X is designed for constant upgrading from third-party developers. Whereas older versions of HURREVAC couldn’t be upgraded easily or used on a variety of computers, HV-X is an open-source solution that invites innovation and can be used on tablets, smartphones or non-PC interfaces, said Wilson.
“Partnering with S&T has resulted in the identification and development of innovative solutions to address the National Hurricane Program’s technology gaps,” said Program Manager for the National Hurricane Program in FEMA Headquarters Response Directorate Christopher Penney. “Moving forward, we will have an increased capability to efficiently and effectively support the critical hurricane evacuation and response decisions made by our stakeholders in the emergency management community.”
S&T says that Version 1.0 of HVX was officially transitioned to FEMA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on 1 May 2017 and a full day of training on HVX was held at the 31st Annual Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference on 17 May 2017 in West Palm Beach, Florida.
“Developing HV-X will help emergency managers make the best decisions in response to a Hurricane. By being able to look at multiple sources of information and have a better understanding of a storm’s predicted or sustained impact, emergency managers can make faster and more accurate decisions,” S&T says.
