Considered opinionBiological weapons and virtual terrorism
Terrorists find biological weapons attractive because these weapons are difficult to detect, are cost effective, and can be easy to use. Aerosols of biological agents are invisible, silent, odorless, tasteless, relatively easily dispersed — and they are 600 to 2000 times cheaper than other weapons of mass destruction. It has been estimated that the cost of a biological weapon is about 0.05 percent the cost of a conventional weapon to produce similar numbers of mass casualties per square kilometer.
Terrorists find biological weapons attractive because these weapons are difficult to detect, are cost effective, and can be easy to use. Aerosols of biological agents are invisible, silent, odorless, tasteless, relatively easily dispersed — and they are 600 to 2000 times cheaper than other weapons of mass destruction. Daniel Wagner writes that it has been estimated that the cost of a biological weapon is about 0.05 percent the cost of a conventional weapon to produce similar numbers of mass casualties per square kilometer. Production is comparatively easy, using common technology available for the production of some antibiotics, vaccines, foods, and beverages, and delivery systems such as spray devices from an airplane, boat, or car are readily available.
Wagner notes that another appeal of biological agents for terrorists is the natural lead time provided by the organism’s incubation period (3 to 7 days for most potential organisms), which allows terrorists to escape before an investigation by law enforcement or intelligence agencies could even begin.
Wagner continues:
Scientists are concerned that a technique called Clustered, Regularly Interspaced, Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR) is now so cheap and widely available that amateurs will start experimenting at home or in school labs. The technique works like genetic scissors to cut away DNA code and replace it with new genes. It has been hailed as one the most significant scientific breakthroughs in recent years, but there are fears that in the wrong hands, the procedure could unleash dangerous strains of bacteria or other organisms. Kits to make E.coli resistant to antibiotics are already for sale on the Internet.
The comparatively low cost and ease of use of the CRISPR system (which is a naturally-occurring defence mechanism used by bacteria) has made it feasible for a greater range of users beyond those who would ordinarily make use of the techniques of molecular biology. Prior to CRISPR, editing DNA required sophisticated labs, years of experience, a PhD degree, and many thousands of dollars. Today the simple do-it-yourself CRISPR kits could enable virtual terrorists targeting the food supply chain to alter the avian influenza genome and engineer a large bird flu epidemic, similar to the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Asia that affected not only poultry, but also other mammals, including human beings.
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The ability to acquire key ingredients via the Internet, and to ‘hire’ individuals with the scientific knowledge to make biological weapons, means that bioterrorism is, and will remain, an omnipresent risk. With the stakes as high as they are, common sense dictates that businesses and governments must combine their resources to find more effective ways to battle the scourge of Virtual Terrorism. Fully implementing the Blueprint would be an excellent place to start.
Read the full story: Daniel Wagner, “Biological weapons and virtual terrorism,” HuffPost (2 October 2017)
