Psychology holds key to getting people out before disaster strikes
Self-efficacy – the feeling of being able to exert control over difficulties that arise – is likely to play a crucial role in how we decide to evacuate. Psychological models suggest that motivation factors, such as our awareness of hazards, risk perception and anxiety levels, interact with our sense of self-efficacy as central factors in decision-making.
In our study, people who reported higher levels of self-efficacy were less likely to report barriers to evacuation. This appears to be a simple relationship: if you have strong coping skills, you are more likely to feel ready to evacuate.
So, providing concise and timely information paired with coping strategies should improve evacuation effectiveness.
However, in a complex disaster that compromises critical infrastructure – such as the destruction of Puerto Rico’s electrical grid during Hurricane Maria – strong individual self-efficacy will not be enough.
The success of response and rescue efforts will depend not only on individual drive, but also on strategic and timely actions from both within and outside the affected populations. Government action and international aid remain vital.
Risks of information overload
Early warnings are, of course, necessary for effective evacuation. Emerging technologies have created a rapidly changing environment for warning information.
Almost half of the 1,000 residents we interviewed said their main source of disaster preparedness information would be the internet, followed by TV. People expect information in real time. And, to get this, they will actively participate online – uploading, sharing, analyzing and organizing information.
Social media have provided new avenues for communicating with the public. Yet the high volume of messages that arise before and during disasters can be difficult to manage.
When Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, 20 million tweets were posted in six days. As the storm worsened it became difficult to sort through the vast range of tweets to find action-specific information.
Effective decision-making depends on reliable, timely and trusted information being available. As we move toward increasingly virtual means of communication, we must determine the optimal strategies for empowering communities to take the safest course of action.
What can be done?
It is critical during evacuation that governments clearly communicate routes to safety, timing of departure, and options for less-mobile people. Using popular social media to provide accurate, real-time information will increase coverage.
At a local level, many communities are actively preparing. In Australia, government and non-government agencies, including the Red Cross, are implementing programs to ensure disaster-prone communities are ready to respond. Many schools have rolled out disaster training for students, who are often the most effective communicators of household disaster-preparedness strategies.
Psychology holds the key to evacuation decision-making. It is time we used it to inform our strategies for reducing disaster risk.
Elizabeth Newnham is Curtin Research Fellow in Psychology, Curtin University. Rex Pui-kin Lam is Clinical Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, University of Hong Kong. Satchit Balsari is FXB Research Fellow, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation (under Creative Commons-Attribution / No derivative).
