Insinuation and influence: How the Kremlin targets Americans online

The limits of influence
While influence can be challenging to measure, we know what it is, and also what it is not. Influence is not mind control. Influence is not puppet mastering. It is a nudge or a shove, usually in the direction someone is already predisposed to lean. No amount of influence can change hardened views; therefore, it is imperative that an influence operation target an audience whose views are, at the very least, malleable. The Kremlin knows this, of course, and thus strategically targets segments of the population — whether on the far left or the far right — that are the most likely to be persuaded.

In the context of the United States, Moscow has, at various points, courted both sides of the political spectrum. During the early stages of the 2016 presidential campaign, for example, the Kremlin sought to influence supporters of upstart candidates in both parties — a fact supported by recent revelations that show that Russian-financed ads and active measures targeted audiences on the left as well as the right. As with most Russian active measures, early attempts were indiscriminate and often unsophisticated. Of course, we know that the Kremlin eventually tried to influence the outcome of the election, and did so with a clear preference for one of the two main candidates. It is important to stress, however, that this move was strategic and not ideological. Simply put, the Kremlin likely viewed Donald Trump as the candidate who would best serve their interests — whether that meant a loosening of economic sanctions, a weakening of transatlantic ties, or a worsening of divisions within the United States — and targeted audiences accordingly.

While the Kremlin succeeded to the extent that their preferred candidate now resides in the White House, they overplayed their hand, exposing enough of their active measures that the president they helped put in office began his term politically weakened. But Moscow’s unabashed targeting of Donald Trump’s core supporters was, and is, about more than influencing the election or improving bilateral relations. This is evidenced by the fact that

the Kremlin-influence network on Twitter has not stopped targeting supporters of President Trump, especially those who identify more with POTUS than the GOP, and who conflate the president and his interests with those of the United States. With hopes dashed for warmer relations with the United States, the obvious question is what does Moscow hope to gain from their position of influence within that network? One answer is that their traction within far-right ecosystems allows them to sow discord and deepen the preexisting divisions within American society. But the more strategic answer involves garnering support for, or neutering opposition to, Moscow’s key foreign policy priorities, namely in Syria and Ukraine.

Unsurprisingly, Syria and Ukraine are the two geopolitical topics that most frequently appear on the Hamilton 68 dashboard. Between September 23 and September 29, for example, over 30 percent of the top URLs that appeared on the dashboard featured stories about Syria or Ukraine, with all of them presenting a decidedly pro-Kremlin and/or anti-American narrative. Moscow’s objective in sharing these views is clear. The critical question, of course, is whether the Kremlin’s efforts have worked, both in terms of influencing opinions within the targeted audience as well as shaping the broader public debate. While that question is unanswerable, it is clear that Moscow sees the alt-right as the audience most likely to support their policy goals, both in regards to the two aforementioned conflicts as well as in their skepticism of internationalism, especially in relation to the EU and NATO.

The Kremlin’s consistent amplification of far-right narratives should therefore be viewed as a strategic targeting decision, rather than recruitment of an ideological ally. The Kremlin ultimately cares about influence, not an audience’s orientation. If two different candidates had emerged from the 2016 U.S. primaries, Kremlin-oriented accounts could very well be engaging different audiences with a different message. As political winds inevitably shift in the United States and Europe, it is essential to stress that any audience that is seen as useful and corruptible is a potential target for future Kremlin influence operations.

Andrew Weisburd is Non-Resident Fellow, and Bret Schafer is Coordinator of Communications, Social Media, and Digital Content at the Alliance for Securing Democracy. The article, originally posted to the website of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, is published here courtesy of the GMFUS.