The Russia connectionRussian influence in Mexican and Colombian elections
Russia’s ongoing effort to destroy faith in democracy is not only a problem for the United States and Europe. The Kremlin has set its sights on destabilizing next year’s Mexican and Colombian elections, and has been strengthening its instruments of political influence in both countries. In 2015, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, then in his capacity as Commander of U.S. Southern Command, warned that under President Vladimir Putin, Russia is “using power projection in an attempt to erode U.S. leadership and challenge U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.”
Russia’s ongoing effort to destroy faith in democracy is not only a problem for the United States and Europe. The Kremlin has set its sights on destabilizing next year’s Mexican and Colombian elections — even capturing the attention of National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster — and has been strengthening its instruments of political influence in both countries. In 2015, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, then in his capacity as Commander of U.S. Southern Command, warned that “Russia has pursued an increased presence in Latin America through propaganda, military arms and equipment sales, counterdrug agreements, and trade.” Additionally, he warned that Russia under President Putin is returning to Cold War tactics, and is “using power projection in an attempt to erode U.S. leadership and challenge U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere …” Russia’s main apparatus for spreading disinformation in Latin America, RT en Español, has already targeted the 2018 elections in Mexico and Colombia, particularly on its Spanish-language YouTube channel, which is reported to have almost 4.5 million monthly viewers and approximately 400,000 subscribers.
Mexico
Why is the Kremlin interested in the 2018 Mexican election? One plausible argument, outlined by Vladimir Rouvinski at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, is that Russia views Mexico as Washington’s “near abroad” and wants revenge for U.S. interference in the post-Soviet space, Russia’s so-called “sphere of influence.” Indeed, RT en Espanol’s coverage has included anti-American content and sought to drive a wedge between the two neighbors. In September 2016, RT en Español began broadcasting “La Batalla por Mexico” or “The Battle for Mexico,” a weekly video blog hosted by political activist John Ackerman. Ackerman’s blog appears to serve two main purposes: to frame the United States as an existential threat to Mexico and to convince Mexican voters to support Andres Manuel López Obrador, a leftist candidate who is rising in popularity by appealing to Mexican nationalism and anti-Trump sentiment. This will be the politician’s third try at the presidency, but this time he has the added support of Russia’s state-sponsored media and its growing audience in Mexico.
