CrimeSpike in London murders can’t be reversed by New York-style police crackdown alone

By James Treadwell

Published 10 April 2018

A spike in murders in London that saw more people killed in the city in February and March than in New York, has provided newspapers with some sensational headlines. Of the more than 50 murders to have taken place in London so far in 2018, the vast majority are the result of knife crime. While comparisons between murders in New York and London make for a good story, simplistic headlines based on one-dimensional readings of statistics can be seriously misleading.

A spike in murders in London that saw more people killed in the city in February and March than in New York, has provided newspapers with some sensational headlines. Of the more than 50 murders to have taken place in London so far in 2018, the vast majority are the result of knife crime.

While comparisons between murders in New York and London make for a good story, simplistic headlines based on one-dimensional readings of statistics can be seriously misleading. UN Office on Drugs and Crime global homicide figures show that in 2014 the U.K. recorded 594 homicides, giving it a murder rate of 0.92 per 100,000 people. In contrast, the rate for the U.S. with 15,696 deaths was 4.88 per 100,000. Yet Latvia has a 4.11 per 100,000 homicide rate – a fact explained by a smaller population and a total of just 81 homicides. Of course, Latvia is not as murderous as American inner-city housing projects, nor is it four times more dangerous than the UK.

What happened in New York
In 2017, there were 290 homicides in New York – the lowest number since the 1940s. The city has a longstanding association with violence. Crime rates spiked in the 1980s and early 1990s, but subsequently New York has been spectacularly rehabilitated. It now has one of the lowest murder rates of any U.S. city.

There have been various explanations for this, from changing lead levels in petrol to changes in abortion policy, but an oft-cited factor is changes in policing. Picking up on this argument, The Sun newspaper recently drafted in the man hailed as the architect of the New York Crime drop, former US police Commissioner, Bill Bratton, to advocate a crackdown on crime in London.