Iran dealAs U.S. withdraws from Iran nuclear deal, experts consider fallout

Published 9 May 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement reverberated throughout the Middle East, Europe, and elsewhere – all the more so because did not say what comes next in U.S. policy toward Iran, leaving a list of questions that experts are rushing to predict: Will Washington seek new negotiations with Tehran? Will Iran resume enriching uranium? Will Israel step up attacks on Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, or militias in Syria? Will the U.S. European allies try to coax the Trump administration back to the negotiating table with Tehran? Will U.S. forces in Syria become more of a target for Iranian fighters?

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement reverberated throughout the Middle East, Europe, and elsewhere, with experts scrambling to figure out what might come next.

Trump said in a televised address from the White House on 8 May that Washington will also impose the “highest level” of sanctions on Tehran as he railed against what he called Iran’s persistent backing of terror groups, its ballistic-missile program, and other issues.

The 2015 agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), lifted crippling economic sanctions against Iran by the West in exchange for Tehran curtailing — but not stopping — its controversial nuclear program.

“This is a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never ever been made. It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will,” Trump said.

But Trump did not say what comes next in U.S. policy toward Iran, leaving a list of questions that experts are rushing to predict:

Will Washington seek new negotiations with Tehran? Will Iran resume enriching uranium? Will Israel step up attacks on Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, or militias in Syria? Will the United States’ European allies try to coax the Trump administration back to the negotiating table with Tehran? Will U.S. forces in Syria become more of a target for Iranian fighters? Will oil prices skyrocket?

Mark Fitzpatrick, former U.S. diplomat and deputy assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation; currently head of the Washington office for the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS):

Of all the options that Trump had before him today, he chose the most hard-line position of withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal altogether. He could have softened the blow. He could have tried to portray some middle ground, suggesting to the Europeans, for example, that there would be several months before any penalties would be imposed so there was still time to try to improve the deal, but he held out no such hope. This is it. He’s pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and now the ball is in Iran’s court.