Coastal perilAs coastal communities face more frequent, severe disruptions, costly choices loom

Sea levels are rising. Tides are inching higher. High-tide floods are becoming more frequent and reaching farther inland. And hundreds of U.S. coastal communities will soon face chronic, disruptive flooding that directly affects people’s homes, lives, and properties.

Yet property values in most coastal real estate markets do not currently reflect this risk. And most homeowners, communities, and investors are not aware of the financial losses they may soon face.

This analysis looks at what’s at risk for U.S. coastal real estate from sea level rise—and the challenges and choices we face now and in the decades to come. 

A threshold of disruption
A new report — Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate – from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), notes that long before rising seas permanently submerge properties, millions of Americans living in coastal communities will face more frequent and disruptive high-tide flooding. As this flooding increases, it will reach a threshold where normal routines become impossible and coastal residents, communities, and businesses are forced to make difficult, often costly choices.

For this analysis, that threshold is defined as flooding that occurs 26 times per year (on average, once every other week) or more, a level of disruption referred to as chronic inundation. It is important to note that this flooding is not caused by storms—it is simply the result of high tides rising higher, and reaching farther inland, as sea levels rise.

The results identify the number of residential and commercial properties at risk of chronic inundation—and the total current property value, estimated population, and property tax base affected—for the entire coastline of the lower 48 states.