Climate change could cause global beer shortages

In the United Kingdom, beer consumption could fall by between 0.37 billion and 1.33 billion liters, while the price could as much as double. Consumption in the US could decrease by between 1.08 billion and 3.48 billion liters.

Co-ordinator of the research and lead U.K. author Dabo Guan, professor of climate change economics at UEA’s School of International Development, said: “Increasingly research has begun to project the impacts of climate change on world food production, focusing on staple crops such as wheat, maize, soybean, and rice.

“However, if adaptation efforts prioritize necessities, climate change may undermine the availability, stability and access to ‘luxury’ goods to a greater extent than staple foods. People’s diet security is equally important to food security in many aspects of society.

“Although some attention has been paid to the potential impacts of climate change on luxury crops such as wine and coffee, the impacts on beer have not been carefully evaluated. A sufficient beer supply may help with the stability of entertainment and communication in society.” 

Prof Guan added: “While the effects on beer may seem modest in comparison to many of the other - some life-threatening - impacts of climate change, there is nonetheless something fundamental in the cross-cultural appreciation of beer.

“It may be argued that consuming less beer isn’t itself disastrous, and may even have health benefits. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that for millions of people around the world, the climate impacts on beer availability and price will add insult to injury.”

The international study involved researchers from the United Kingdom, China, Mexico, and the United States, who identified extreme climate events and modelled the impacts of these on barley yields in 34 world regions. They then examined the effects of the resulting barley supply shock on the supply and price of beer in each region under a range of future climate scenarios.

Some countries with smaller total beer consumption face huge reductions in their beer consumption: the volume of beer consumed in Argentina falls by 0.53 billion liters, equivalent to a 32 percent reduction, during more severe climate events. Even in the least severe climate events, total beer consumption in Argentina and Canada decreases by 0.27 billion liters (16 percent) and 0.22 billion liters (11 percent) respectively.

Countries where beer is currently most expensive, for example Australia and Japan, are not necessarily where future price shocks will be the greatest. Changes in the price of beer in a country relates to consumers’ ability and willingness to pay more for beer rather than consume less, such that the largest price increases are concentrated in relatively affluent and historically beer-loving countries.

The researchers suggest that changes in barley supply due to extreme events will affect the barley available for making beer differently in each region, as the allocation of barley among livestock feed, beer brewing, and other uses will depend on region-specific prices and demand flexibilities as different industries seek to maximize profits.

Their findings show that global and country-level barley supply declines progressively in more severe extreme event years, with the largest mean supply decreasing by 27-38 percent in some European countries, such as Belgium, the Czech Republic and Germany.

— Read more in Wei Xie et al., “Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat,” Nature Plants (15 October 2018) (DOI: 10.1038/s41477-018-0263-1)