Climate threats“Pause” in global warming was never real, new research proves
Claims of a “pause” in observed global temperature warming are comprehensively disproved in a pair of new studies published this week. An international team of climate researchers reviewed existing data and studies and reanalyzed them. They concluded there has never been a statistically significant “pause” in global warming. This conclusion holds whether considering the “pause” as a change in the rate of warming in observations or as a mismatch in rate between observations and expectations from climate models.
An international team of climate researchers reviewed existing data and studies and reanalyzed them. They concluded there has never been a statistically significant ‘pause’ in global warming. This conclusion holds whether considering the `pause’ as a change in the rate of warming in observations or as a mismatch in rate between observations and expectations from climate models.
Their papers are published n Environmental Research Letters.
Dr. James Risbey, from CSIRO Australia, is the lead author of one of studies, which reassessed the data and put it into historical context.
He said: “Many studies over the past decade have claimed to find a pause or slowdown in global warming and have typically posited this as evidence that is inconsistent with our understanding of global warming.”
The study examined the literature on an alleged ‘pause’. It looked at how the ‘pause’ had been defined, the time intervals used to characterize it, and the methods used to assess it. The study then tested historical and current versions of the earth’s global mean surface temperature (GMST) datasets for pauses, both in terms of no warming trend and a substantially slower trend in GMST.
Dr. Risbey said: “Our findings show there is little or no statistical evidence for a ‘pause’ in GMST rise. Neither the current data nor the historical data support it. Moreover, updates to the GMST data through the period of ‘pause’ research have made this conclusion stronger. But, there was never enough evidence to reasonably draw any other conclusion.
“Global warming did not pause, but we need to understand how and why scientists came to believe it had, to avoid future episodes like this. The climate-research community’s acceptance of a ‘pause’ in global warming caused confusion for the public and policy system about the pace and urgency of climate change.
“That confusion in turn might have contributed to reduced impetus for action to prevent greenhouse climate change. The full costs of that are unknowable, but the risks are substantial. There are lessons here for the science, and for the future.”
The group’s companion study looks at the alleged mismatch between the rate of global warming in observations and climate models.
Bristol says that the team carried out a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections, using historical GMST products and historical versions of model projections from the times when claims of a divergence between observations and modelling were made.
