Military campaignsWhat helps, or prevents, U.S. military interventions from achieving their goals?
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, a new report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives. The United States has successfully achieved its political objectives in about 63 percent of the interventions, but the levels of success have been declining over time as the United States has pursued increasingly ambitious objectives.
A new RAND analysis of 145 U.S. military interventions has identified the factors that have made them more or less successful at achieving their political objectives. They were successful 63 percent of the time, but that level has declined as the U.S. has pursued more ambitious goals. Before intervening, U.S. military planners should carefully match strategy with political objectives.
The researchers asked the following questions:
- What types of political objectives has the United States historically pursued through military interventions?
- How successful has the United States been historically at achieving political objectives during military operations?
- What are the characteristics of U.S. military interventions that are most likely to achieve their political objectives?
- How do such factors as the size of the intervention, the operating context, the local dynamics, and the international system influence the outcome of the intervention?
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, the report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives. While these objectives were often successfully achieved, about 63 percent of the time overall, levels of success have been declining over time as the United States has pursued increasingly ambitious objectives.
The research combines statistical analysis and detailed case studies of three types of interventions — combat, stability operations, and deterrence. The research highlights that the factors that promote the successful achievement of political objectives vary by the nature of the objective and the intervention. For example, sending additional ground forces may help to defeat adversaries in combat missions but may have a more contingent effect on success in institution-building in stability operations, where nonmilitary resources and pre-intervention planning may be especially vital.
