Hostile Social Manipulation by Russia and China: A Growing, Poorly Understood Threat

RAND notes that partly as a result, these techniques remain in their preliminary stages, have so far had relatively marginal effects, and may reflect far less coherent strategy in Moscow and Beijing than is typically assumed. Significant gaps remain in our awareness of what has happened and how effective current social manipulation campaigns have been, the report finds. Indeed, some efforts appear to have been counterproductive.

Nonetheless, the report concludes that hostile social manipulation has the potential for greater impact in the future, and the United States should invest significantly greater resources in understanding and countering these techniques.

“We have little conclusive evidence about the actual impact of hostile social manipulation to date—particularly when it comes to assessing the effectiveness of attempts to influence the attitudes and behaviors of specific audiences,” said Alyssa Demus, an author of the report and senior policy analyst at RAND. “Yet the marriage of the hostile intent of leading powers and the evolution of information technology could significantly broaden the reach and increase the impact of these techniques over time. The attribution of efforts is particularly challenging. In many cases, available evidence indicates a link between observed efforts and Russian sponsorship, for example, but it is rare to definitively prove a link.”

RAND researchers conducted a detailed assessment of available evidence of Russian and Chinese social manipulation efforts, the doctrines and strategies behind such efforts, and evidence of their potential effectiveness.

Key Findings
The United States is only beginning to examine the techniques and reach of information warfare

· The United States needs an updated framework for organizing its thinking about the manipulation of infospheres by foreign powers determined to gain competitive advantage.

· Leading autocratic states have begun to employ information channels for competitive advantage — plans that remain in their initial stages and that could unfold in several ways.

· Efforts at social manipulation are effective to the degree that vulnerabilities in a society allow them to be effective.

There is as yet no conclusive evidence about the actual impact of hostile social manipulation to date

· There is a critical distinction between the outputs of manipulation campaigns and their outcomes in terms of effects on attitudes or behavior.

The marriage of the hostile intent of leading powers and the evolution of information technology may vastly increase the effectiveness and reach of these techniques over time

· Leading democracies may have a limited window of opportunity to develop resilience and active defenses against such measures before they become truly dangerous.

Democracies urgently need to undertake rigorous research on social manipulation to gain a better understanding of its dynamics
Recommendations

· Develop a more formal and concrete framework for understanding hostile social manipulation.

· Fund additional research to understand the scope of the challenge.