Perspective: TerrorismAl-Qaeda’s Continuing Challenge to the United States
Al-Qaeda has diminished in policy and public debates. U.S. policymakers have shifted their attention to countering an assertive China and a vicious Putin, and in recent intelligence assessments of threats, al-Qaeda has dropped on the priority list. The U.S. public’s concern about the threat of international terrorist groups has declined over the past few years. In addition, there is policy fatigue toward counterterrorism. While many politicians still worry about the electorate’s sensitivity to terrorism by groups like al-Qaeda, they also question the cost of maintaining the fight. The current policy mood and competing national security priorities need calibration with al-Qaeda’s trajectory. Al-Qaeda remains committed to targeting the United States, has improved political control of major factions and rebuilt meaningful capabilities, and now seems poised to take advantage of a permissive strategic environment in Afghanistan. Addressing these strengths will continue to be a challenge for the United States and deserves sustained attention from U.S. policymakers.
Al-Qaeda has diminished in policy and public debates. U.S. policymakers have shifted their attention to countering an assertive China and a vicious Putin, and in recent intelligence assessments of threats, al-Qaeda has dropped on the priority list. The U.S. public’s concern about the threat of international terrorist groups has declined over the past few years. In addition, there is policy fatigue toward counterterrorism. While many politicians still worry about the electorate’s sensitivity to terrorism by groups like al-Qaeda, they also question the cost of maintaining the fight.
Asfandyar Mir writes in Lawfare that Al-Qaeda’s loss of status in U.S. policy debates and public perception is partly due to the group’s failure to carry out an international terrorist attack in recent years. The last international attack in the West connected to al-Qaeda was the 2015 shooting at the offices of Charlie Hebdo in Paris. Al-Qaeda expert Daniel Byman has argued that this record indicates the group’s decline, and some see the reported death of Hamza bin Laden—once tipped to succeed Ayman al-Zawahiri—furthering al-Qaeda’s demise. Another factor is that a different jihadi organization, the Islamic State, eclipsed al-Qaeda over the past decade.
The current policy mood and competing national security priorities need calibration with al-Qaeda’s trajectory. Al-Qaeda remains committed to targeting the United States, has improved political control of major factions and rebuilt meaningful capabilities, and now seems poised to take advantage of a permissive strategic environment in Afghanistan. Addressing these strengths will continue to be a challenge for the United States and deserves sustained attention from U.S. policymakers.
