PerspectiveWill Israel Go to War Over Hezbollah's Precision-Guided Missiles?
In the last three years, Israel has engaged in a broad campaign to eliminate Iran’s strategic footprint in the Levant, which has grown exponentially over the past half-decade as a result of the Islamic Republic’s campaign in support of the Syrian regime. Iran’s effort has allowed it to establish an expeditionary presence along Israel’s northern border—one that, over the past few years, has prompted a significant Israeli military response.
In early September, Israel’s military shelled a series of Hezbollah factories and installations in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The strikes represented the most significant Israeli operation against the terrorist group since the 2006 Lebanon War. It also marked the start of what could well become another military conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia.
Ilan Berman writes in the National Interest that that potential clash is an outgrowth of Israel’s efforts to eliminate Iran’s strategic footprint in the Levant, which has grown exponentially over the past half-decade as a result of the Islamic Republic’s campaign in support of the Syrian regime. The effort has allowed Iran to establish an expeditionary presence along Israel’s northern border—one that, over the past few years, has prompted a significant Israeli military response.
Berman writes:
For now, Israeli officials seem generally satisfied with the results. According to defense experts here, the Israeli operations have succeeded in establishing at least a minimum level of deterrence against Iran in Israel’s north—and in demonstrating that Qassem Soleimani, the feared Iranian general who has been identified as the architect of Tehran’s Syria campaign, is not, in fact, “ten feet tall.” Other observers put the matter even more starkly: Israel’s Syria campaign has demonstrated that, despite their best efforts, Iran and its proxies “have no deterrence whatsoever” against Israel.
Yet, in recent weeks, the Israeli-Iranian front has shifted further west to Lebanon. There, Israeli experts say, Iran is assisting Hezbollah with what amounts to a major industrial project designed to improve the accuracy and precision of its extensive arsenal of short-range missiles and rockets. In turn, this “precision project” represents a grave threat to Israeli security, because it has the potential to qualitatively alter the missile threat facing the Jewish state.
