Perspective: ApocalypseA Terrifying New Animation Shows How 1 “Tactical” Nuclear Weapon Could Trigger a U.S.-Russia War that Kills 34 Million People in 5 Hours

Published 16 September 2019

More than 91 million people in Russia, the U.S., and NATO-allied countries might be killed or injured within three hours following a single “nuclear warning shot,” according to a terrifying new simulation developed by Princeton University researchers. The initial tactical phase of the simulation shows about 2.6 million casualties over three hours. The simulation shows that the exchanges in the tactical phase would soon escalate to the strategic level, in which both Russia and NATO would launch warheads toward each other’s 30 most populous cities in the final stage of the scenario, using five to 10 warheads for each city depending on its size. This phase would cause 85.3 million casualties — both deaths and injuries. But the total casualty count from the entire battle (of less than 5 hours) would be 34.1 million deaths and 57.4 million injuries, or a combined 91.3 million casualties overall.

More than 91 million people in Russia, the U.S., and NATO-allied countries might be killed or injured within three hours following a single “nuclear warning shot,” according to a terrifying new simulation.

Ellen Ioanes and Dave Mosher write in Business Insider that the simulation is called “Plan A,” and it’s an audio-visual piece that was first posted to to YouTube on September 6. (You can watch the full video at the end of this story.) Researchers at the Science and Global Security lab at Princeton University created the animation, which shows how a battle between Russia and NATO allies that uses so-called low-yield or “tactical” nuclear weapons— which can pack a blast equivalent to those the US used to destroy Hiroshima or Nagasaki in World War II — might feasibly and quickly snowball into a global nuclear war.

This project is motivated by the need to highlight the potentially catastrophic consequences of current U.S. and Russian nuclear war plans. The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years,” the project states on its website.

The video has an ominous, droning soundtrack and a digital map design straight out of the 1983 movie “WarGames.” The Cold War-era movie, in which a young Matthew Broderick accidentally triggers a nuclear war, “was exactly the reference point,” simulation designer Alex Wellerstein told Insider.

The simulation was constructed using independent analysis of nuclear force postures in NATO countries and Russia, including the availability of nuclear weapons, their yields, and possible targets, according to the Science and Global Security lab.

The initial tactical phase of the simulation shows about 2.6 million casualties over three hours.

The simulation shows that the exchanges in the tactical phase would soon escalate to the strategic level, in which both Russia and NATO would launch warheads toward each other’s 30 most populous cities in the final stage of the scenario, using five to 10 warheads for each city depending on its size.

This phase would cause 85.3 million casualties — both deaths and injuries. But the total casualty count from the entire battle (of less than 5 hours) would be 34.1 million deaths and 57.4 million injuries, or a combined 91.3 million casualties overall.

But that’s just the immediate conflict: The entire world would be affected by nuclear disaster in the months, years, and decades to come.