Perspective: ISIS resurgenceAccountability for Islamic State Fighters: What Are the Options?

Published 14 October 2019

President Trump’s precipitous decision to withdraw U.S. forces from northern Syria has already had dramatic consequences. One of the questions Trump’s hasty Twitter announcement raises involves the fate of the thousands of ISIS fighters no in detention in Syria. The Kurdish SDF is currently holding more than 10,000 Islamic State fighters—including at least 8,000 Iraqis and Syrians and 2,000 foreign fighters—in overflowing temporary detention centers in northeastern Syria. The biggest camp, al-Hol, houses around 70,000 people related to ISIS fighters, including about 10,000 foreigners and 30,000 Islamic State loyalists. The SDF has already said that it was withdrawing its guards from the Islamic State detention centers and camps in order to deal with the Turkish invasion. On Sunday, nearly 900 ISIS followers have escaped from one of the camps. Emma Broches writes that as Turkey’s offensive continues, it’s useful to review what the future might hold for these prisoners. “If the security surrounding the detainees deteriorates, the Islamic State will likely exploit the situation and create a further opportunity for its ongoing resurgence.”

President Trump’s sudden announcement that the U.S. would withdraw forces from along the Syria-Turkey border has already had dramatic consequences. Turkish armed forces launched an invasion into northern Syria dubbed “Operation Peace Spring,” in response to which the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the predominantly Kurdish military backed by the U.S.-led coalition, has warned that it will be forced to withdraw some of its guards from the Islamic State detention centers and camps to deal with the invasion. Meanwhile, both the Islamic State and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are taking advantage of the Turkish invasion to launch their own attacks within Syria: On Oct. 9, the Islamic State attacked an SDF position in Raqqa, the former de facto capital of the Islamic State, and Assad’s Russian-backed forces moved further into Manbij and Idlib. The same day, the U.S. reportedly helped move some of the “most dangerous” Islamic State detainees out of SDF custody but subsequently ordered a halt to any further operations against the Islamic State.

As Robert Chesney predicted on Lawfare, Trump’s decision could create the triggering conditions that lead to a collapse of the SDF detention system and a release of thousands of Islamic State fighters. For the same reason, the Turkish invasion of northern Syria underlines the urgency of figuring out how best to detain Islamic State members and hold them accountable for crimes they may have committed while fighting alongside the group.

Emma Broches writes in Lawfare that by some estimates, the SDF is currently holding more than 10,000 Islamic State fighters—including at least 8,000 Iraqis and Syrians and 2,000 foreign fighters—in overflowing temporary detention centers in northeastern Syria. Thousands of family members of detainees are being held in camps for internally displaced persons in the same region. According to Maj. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, the deputy commander of the U.S.-led military coalition to defeat the Islamic State, these camps are potential hotbeds of extremism and the “greatest long-term strategic risk to the overall global campaign against ISIS.” The biggest camp, al-Hol, houses around 70,000 people, including about 10,000 foreigners and 30,000 Islamic State loyalists.

The SDF has consistently asserted that it has limited capabilities to guard these facilities and has continually called for support from the coalition countries. Even before Trump’s announcement on Sunday, the head of the Kurdish forces expressed concern that the camp was at risk of falling under the control of the Islamic State. Despite the general consensus that the status quo was not sustainable, coalition countries have done little to address the problem and there has been no agreement on how to handle these fighters and their families.

Broches writes:

Most countries have refused to repatriate their citizens who traveled to join the Islamic State, and some have argued that these foreign fighters should be tried in local courts in Syria or Iraq or stripped of their citizenship. However, even if countries were willing to repatriate their citizens, the majority of detainees who are Syrian or Iraqi would still be left in the hands of the flawed local judiciaries. To simultaneously avoid the problems of repatriation and of leaving the detainees with the local authorities, a small subset of European governments—along with the SDF—have been calling for some sort of tribunal to deal with the detainees.

As Turkey’s offensive continues, it’s useful to review where things stood in relation to the Islamic State detainees before Trump’s announcement and what the future might hold for these prisoners. The situation may depend on who—among the SDF, Turkey, Syria and Russia—gains control of the northeastern territory. But if the security surrounding the detainees deteriorates, the Islamic State will likely exploit the situation and create a further opportunity for its ongoing resurgence.