Averting an ISIS Resurgence in Iraq and Syria
Conflict between Turkey and the SDF along the Syrian-Turkish border almost certainly will relieve pressure on ISIS, which lost its last territorial foothold in eastern Syria in May 2019 but persists as a deadly insurgency. Since May, the SDF has continued to pursue ISIS remnants across the north east and to hold thousands of ISIS detainees and ISIS-affiliated family members. Yet the SDF has warned that it will be forced to redirect its forces toward Syria’s northern border should Turkey attack. The consequences may be disastrous for areas farther south, where ISIS is most active, and for prisons and camps that hold ISIS militants and were already vulnerable to attack before the latest events.
The ICG notes that “Turkey’s intervention in north-eastern Syria, following President Trump’s 6 October decision, has put ISIS’s near defeat in Syria in question.”
On 6 October, after a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump, without consulting his defense, intelligence, and foreign policy experts, tweeted that Turkey would launch a military operation in northern Syria and that U.S. forces “will no longer be in the immediate area.” Facing a backlash from military experts and lawmakers from both sides of the aisle, Trump issued a series of tweets which, at the same time, amplified, contradicted, and muddied his initial set of tweets.mp
“Trump’s erratic messaging seems not to have dissuaded Turkey,” the ICG notes.
The full scope of Turkish intervention in the north east remains unclear, as does the extent of U.S. withdrawal, but Turkish officials have told Western counterparts that they intend to secure the full “safe zone” they have mooted publicly – 32km wide and 480km long. The few (roughly 50) U.S. military personnel present on the border have left their positions (but not Syria). Trump and Erdoğan seem likely to discuss Syria during the Turkish leader’s announced trip to Washington on 13 November.
Conflict between Turkey and the SDF along the Syrian-Turkish border will likely relieve at least some pressure on ISIS, which lost its last territorial foothold in eastern Syria in May 2019 but persists as a deadly insurgency. Since May, the SDF has continued to pursue ISIS remnants across the north east, and to hold thousands of ISIS detainees. The SDF has warned that it would be forced to redirect its forces toward Syria’s northern border should Turkey attack, with potentially disastrous consequences for counter-ISIS efforts.
The SDF believes it needs to mount strong resistance to a Turkish incursion to blunt any advance.
The main beneficiary of Trump’s impulsive decision is Russia, who will see its role in Syria and region expand from that of a “playmaker” to that of a “kingmaker,” in the words of one analyst. The ICG writes:
If it looks as if the U.S. cannot or will not deter Turkey, then the best and only remaining option for the YPG will be to negotiate directly with the Syrian regime for the return of Syrian state sovereignty to Syria’s north east. In this situation, Russia could mediate between the regime and YPG, and also intercede with Turkey, backing the redeployment of regime forces to Syria’s Turkish border even as it assures Turkey that the regime’s return will be substantive, not just symbolic. Russia has previously argued for reactivating Syria and Turkey’s 1998 Adana Agreement, which gives Turkey the right to conduct “hot pursuit” counter-terrorism operations inside Syria even as it entails mutual bilateral recognition.
