Mass shootingsHave We Become Too Paranoid about Mass Shootings?

By Jaclyn Schildkraut

Published 22 October 2019

Many Americans worry about when – not if – another mass shooting will occur, and a Gallup poll from September found that nearly half of Americans fear being a victim of one of these attacks. Should we be? My research has shown a big discrepancy between the actual threat of mass shootings and the way the public perceives that threat. In other words, people think mass shootings are far more common than they are. Why does this discrepancy exist? And what sort of ramifications does it have?

Many Americans worry about when – not if – another mass shooting will occur, and a Gallup poll from September found that nearly half of Americans fear being a victim of one of these attacks.

After the film “Joker” was released, you could see these fears play out.

Many announced they wouldn’t see it in theaters. The film’s deranged main character, they said, would inspire people like the Aurora shooter, who, in 2012, killed 12 people and wounded 70 others during a screening of “Dark Knight Rises.”

“I’m going to miss two minutes of the movie looking for emergency exits in a panic every time anyone gets up to go to the bathroom,” a film critic for The Cut wrote. Many theaters hired extra security to allay the fears of moviegoers.

Then there have been the false alarms in Times Square, New York, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Cambridge, Massachusetts and, most recently, in Boca Raton, Florida, which is less than 30 minutes from the site of the Parkland shooting. The Times Square panic was caused by a motorcycle backfiring, while the Boca Raton false alarm was set off by a popped balloon.

Everyone, it seems, is on edge.

Should we be?

My research has shown a big discrepancy between the actual threat of mass shootings and the way the public perceives that threat. In other words, people think mass shootings are far more common than they are.

Why does this discrepancy exist? And what sort of ramifications does it have?

Zooming Out
Sometimes it’s worth putting mass shootings in context.

Homicides account for just 0.1% of all offenses known to law enforcement, and mass shootings represent just a fraction of all homicides.

In a recent analysis, my colleagues and I determined that the average annual victimization rate of mass shootings – meaning the rate of being injured or killed in one – is less than 0.04 per 100,000 people.

Put another way, being the victim of a mass shooting is just about as unlikely as being struck by lightning, which occurred at a rate of 0.035 per 100,000 people in 2016.

Over the course of your life, you’re far more likely to die in a car crash, in a fire or by choking on food.