ISISSyrian Chaos Breathing Life into Islamic State

Published 22 October 2019

Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria appears to be giving Islamic State new life, but U.S. counterterrorism officials caution the terror group’s next moves are far from certain. The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, warn Islamic State is well-versed in using regional conflicts to its advantage, having done so in Iraq in 2005-2006, and again in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.

Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria appears to be giving Islamic State new life, but U.S. counterterrorism officials caution the terror group’s next moves are far from certain.

The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, warn Islamic State is well-versed in using regional conflicts to its advantage, having done so in Iraq in 2005-2006, and again in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.

And they note that IS has used the seven months since the fall in March of its last territorial stronghold in Baghuz, Syria, to lay a foundation of “dispersed networks” — comprising an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 fighters — for a prolonged and vicious insurgency.

It is not clear at this time how ISIS may adjust their strategy in Syria in light of the Turkish incursion,” a U.S. counterterrorism official told VOA, using an acronym for the terror group.

Until Turkey launched its operation in Syria’s northeast earlier this month, most of IS’s operations had targeted Kurdish security forces. There was also speculation that IS cells might try to free some of the approximately 12,000 fighters being held by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as the tens of thousands of IS wives and other family members in displaced persons camps across the region — something IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi encouraged in a September speech.

Just how many captured IS fighters may have escaped or been freed remains uncertain. U.S. officials say both Turkey and the SDF have assured them the prisoners remain incarcerated, though they admit the absence of U.S. forces on the ground means the claims cannot be verified.

Both Turkey and the SDF have likewise accused each other of releasing IS prisoners to fight for them during the current hostilities — allegations each side rejects.

Conditions Ripe for Thriving IS
U.S. officials fear it is the type of atmosphere in which IS tends to thrive.

Mistrust of the government, the inability of security guarantors to assure the safety of local populations, and divisions along ethnic and religious lines are all factors that ISIS has previously exploited,” the U.S. counterterrorism official said.

And there have been indications, of late, that the terror group is growing bolder.