African securityTensions Rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile Dam Project

Tension is rising between Egypt and Ethiopia over the huge Ethiopian dam project on the Nile.

Egypt is worried that the construction of the Renaissance Dam, a $4 billion dollars project launched by Ethiopia in 2012, will substantially reduce water flow in the Nile. Egypt depends on the Nile for about 90 percent of its water supply.

For nine years now, discussions among the three countries affected by the dam – Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan – have ended in an impasse. Negotiations resumed in Khartoum earlier this month, but this round, too, has ended in a “stalemate”, according to Egyptian diplomats. Ethiopian diplomats, on the other hand, insist that progress has been made.

Middle East Eye reports that Egypt insists on a guarantee from Ethiopia that Egypt would receive a minimum of 40 billion cubic meters of water annually, but Ethiopia argues that this would give Egypt an unreasonably large share of the Nile’s water, and that, in any event, climate change-driven fluctuations make it impossible to agree to a fixed amount of water each of the three countries should receive.

“A war cannot be a solution and will not help us,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told the Ethiopian parliament on Tuesday. But “no force can stop Ethiopia from building the dam.”

Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize 2019 for negotiating a peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea, added that “A quarter of the [Ethiopian] population is poor and young, so we could mobilize millions if necessary” to fight to defend the dam project – but “negotiation” would be the best solution, he said.

Egypt on Tuesday criticized Ahmed’s statements for containing “unacceptable insinuations.”

Analysts say that the absence of an agreement among Addis Ababa, Cairo, and Khartoum may well lead to an armed conflict in the region.

Cairo ruled that the statements were “unacceptable insinuations,” according to a statement released Tuesday (22 October) by the Egyptian foreign ministry.

Analysts say the inability of the three countries to reach an agreement could lead to armed conflict in the region, but that such a conflict is not imminent.

“If the comments [by Ahmed] were largely intended for a national audience, they reflect the recent tensions with Egypt,” William Davison of the International Crisis Group told Le Monde. He noted that Egypt, which refers to a “historic right” over the river guaranteed by a series of treaties, has used a similar bellicose rhetoric in the past. Davison says, however, that there is “little chance” that the issue will lead to conflict, and that the two countries still have the possibility of reaching an agreement.

On Tuesday, Egypt said it had accepted a U.S. invitation for a meeting in Washington of the Egyptian, Sudanese, and Ethiopian foreign ministers to “unblock the deadlock” of the negotiations.

The Nile, which is the longest river in the world, is a vital source of water for the ten East African countries through the territories of which it runs. The Blue Nile, which has its source in Ethiopia, joins the White Nile in Khartoum to form the Nile which crosses Sudan and Egypt before flowing into the Mediterranean.