ArgumentsCan the United States Deter Election Meddling?
The 2020 election is still a year away, but law enforcement officials are already sounding the alarm about foreign interference in the election. Leaders of the U.S. intelligence and law enforcement communities warn that Moscow is preparing to launch a similar effort next year. Joshua Rovner writes that cyber-meddling is a challenge, but that we should not despair.
The 2020 election is still a year away, but law enforcement officials are already sounding the alarm about foreign interference in the election. In 2016, Russia used a combination of espionage, hacking, leaks, and disinformation in an effective effort to undermine Hillary Clinton’s campaign; deepen division and acrimony among American voters; and sow doubt among American voters about the integrity of the U.S. de mocratic institutions. Leaders of the U.S. intelligence and law enforcement communities warn that Moscow is preparing to launch a similar effort next year. “The Russians are coming,” warns the USA Today editorial board. “Again.”
Joshua Rovner writes in War on the Rocks that
The unique characteristics of cyberspace exacerbate these fears. Foreign efforts to meddle in elections are hardly new, but cyberspace makes them more likely to succeed. The barriers to entry are low for those who seek to flood the zone with noise, spreading misinformation and messages designed to exploit existing social divisions. Social media platforms encourage political tribalism, as partisans gravitate to mutually reinforcing ideological communities. Key figures are vulnerable to having their emails stolen and leaked in ways that are potentially embarrassing, whether or not they are newsworthy. And voting technologies are potentially open to manipulation. Cyberspace is an avenue for foreign influence in campaign debates and foreign interference on election day.
Cyber-meddling is a challenge, but Rovner says that we should not despair:
U.S. leaders should not exaggerate the threat. Doing so inadvertently undermines public trust in government, which was in decline long before the 2016 election. Fretting about foreign mischief is self-defeating if the goal is restoring public confidence in the strength and durability of one’s own institutions. Foreign states have a long history of trying to interfere in American democracy, but they don’t have a lot to show for their efforts. Cyberspace creates new opportunities for meddling, to be sure, but defenders have responded with vigor, and there is little indication that critical election systems have been compromised. The 2020 campaign season promises to be a raucous affair. A dose of calm would help.
