PerspectiveThe Fractured Terrorism Threat to America

The Islamic State and its formerly held territory are no longer the incandescent bug lamp for the jihadist scene. “It is clear that the jihadist threat has become fractured, with new and old hazards facing the United States concurrently,” Seamus Hughes and Devorah Margolin write in Lawfare.

In 2011, then-National Counterterrorism Director Matthew Olsen told Congress that the next iteration of the jihadist movement in the United States will be a “more diffuse and diversified threat.”

This is a period of multitudes, Hughes and Margolin write. “The threats to the United States will be similar to those we faced before: homegrown terrorism, Americans detained overseas, those set to be released from prison and a changing online media landscape.”

But there are additional concerns, “including the return of foreign fighters and a cadre of American supporters who feel like they missed their opportunity to ‘join the caravan’ and must violently avenge its demise.”

They conclude:

The ever-evolving landscape of the jihadist threat to the United States presents myriad challenges to countering extremism here at home. With conflicts around the world likely to inspire the next wave of jihadist ideology, U.S. law enforcement and the legal system have the unenviable task of addressing a diverse set of threats. These include Americans in prisons at home and abroad, returning foreign fighters and homegrown terrorists, and the challenges of the evolving online landscape.

For a fleeting moment, the siren song of the Islamic State attracted the majority of American extremists. As the call dissipates, the homegrown threat is one of multiples. These threats, both new and old, are splintering and, if left unaddressed, will continue to metastasize in the months and years to come. Time—and how U.S. policy responds to these concerns—will tell whether this new transformation will lower or increase the danger to America.