PerspectiveWhen Does Terrorism Have a Strategic Effect?

Published 27 November 2019

Not all terrorism is created equal, Daniel Byman writes. “Some attacks are merely blips on the terrorism radar screen, grabbing headlines for a few days before life resumes as before. Other attacks, however, shake the world.” Over-reaction to an act of terrorism can have as many negative consequences as under-reaction, so leaders must avoid initiating dramatic policy shifts such as going to war or changing allies without thinking long and hard about the consequences of such shifts.

Not all terrorism is created equal, Daniel Byman writes in War on the Rocks.

Some attacks are merely blips on the terrorism radar screen, grabbing headlines for a few days before life resumes as before. Other attacks, however, shake the world. The strategic effects of such an attack go far beyond whether it helps a terrorist group win, and they can be divided into two areas. First, terrorism can affect conflict and international politics, shaping foreign policy, sparking international and civil wars, and preventing peace negotiations. Second, terrorism can undermine democracy by decreasing faith in public institutions. The strategic success of terrorism often depends as much on the government response as it does the terrorist attack itself: too little or too much counterterrorism can do the terrorists’ jobs for them.

He notes:

The strategic impact of terrorism depends heavily on the skill and reactions of the government fighting the terrorists. Terrorists seek to change government policies, and they often do so by pushing the government to overreact or to display weakness, thereby discrediting it or increasing support for the terrorist cause. It is difficult for political leaders not to respond as politicians, and President Trump’s reactions, such as using the aftermath of an attack to criticize his political opponents, shows how responses to terrorism can exacerbate social divisions even more than attacks themselves.

Byman warn that too tough a response to acts of terrorism is often a mistake equal in its bad consequences to a response which is too timid. Above all, leaders should be careful to initiate dramatic policy shifts as an immediate response to a violent act of terrorism. “Such rash actions often do the terrorists’ jobs for them, enabling them to gain sympathy for their cause and truly change the world when their actions would otherwise be consigned to oblivion,” he writes.