2019: Looking back: Climate & security6. Climate Change’s Threat to National Security

The past year saw more military and intelligence services of more governments give expression to their recognition of the serious threat the consequences of climate change pose to national security and international stability.

Among the threats: Important U.S. military bases on the coasts and in the Midwest’s flood plains have suffered major damage as a result of hurricanes and flooding, crippling the U.S. strategic capabilities (two examples: Offutt Air Force base in Nebraska, home to the U.S. Strategic Command, was incapacitated by historic flooding which swept through the Midwest in March. More than 130 structures were destroyed, and the cost of rebuilding has hit $1 billion and could go higher; Hurricane Michael, a massive Category 5 storm, wiped out Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida in 2018, damaging 17 grounded F-22 stealth fighters and causing an estimated $5 billion in damage).

The consequences of climate change also make operational deployments more challenging. Heat-related illnessesin the military are on the rise, putting service members’ lives at risk; the Government Accountability Office (GAO), in a recent report to Congress, wrote that climate change makes U.S. military operations overseas more difficult and challenging as the U.S. armed forces face extreme weather; sea level rise; and the risk of diminishing water supplies.

Global warming causes changes in disease patterns, increasing crop failures and reducing fresh-water availability. These could lead to political instability and social unrest in countries friendly to the United States, and waves of migrants which could destabilize entire regions. These consequences of climate change could also exacerbate existing conflicts.