PerspectiveTerrorists and Technological Innovation
On 9 October 2019, a terrorist motivated by anti-Semitic beliefs descended on a synagogue in Halle, Germany, where people were observing the Yom Kippur holiday. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Colin P. Clarke, and Matt Shear write that Baillet’s use of steel, wood and 3-D-printed plastic components to manufacture three weapons is an example of how violent nonstate actors (VNSAs) adopt new technologies. “As new technologies proliferate, there will invariably be individuals trying to figure out how to use these technologies to kill,” they write.
On 9 October 2019, a terrorist motivated by anti-Semitic beliefs descended on a synagogue in Halle, Germany, where people were observing the Yom Kippur holiday. Stephan Baillet had penned a manifesto describing his objective as killing “as many non-Whites as possible, Jews preferred.” Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware note that Baillet “allegedly used steel, wood and 3-D-printed plastic components” to manufacture three weapons.
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Colin P. Clarke, and Matt Shear write in Lawfare that
[Baillet’s] use of homemade weapons may have helped him avoid authorities’ scrutiny, and another of his stated objectives was to “prove the viability of improvised weapons.” Fortunately, his innovation seemed to fail, as his weapons jammed three times, probably saving many lives.
The fact that the attack faltered because of its technical innovation may lead some observers to underestimate the significance of its use of 3-D printing. Based on our research into how violent nonstate actors (VNSAs) adopt new technologies, we believe this would be a mistake: After an initial period marked by failure, VNSAs often get far more proficient, posing a host of dangers that governments move to counter only belatedly. We refer to the process by which VNSAs adopt new technologies and refine their methods as the VNSA technology adoption curve.
The authors conclude:
As the Halle terrorist demonstrated, 3-D printing poses opportunities for groups looking to obtain lethal weapons while avoiding detection by law enforcement. Artificial intelligence is another technology that VNSAs will likely work to incorporate into their operations.
As new technologies proliferate, there will invariably be individuals trying to figure out how to use these technologies to kill. By outlining the adoption curve, we hope to enable our colleagues to more quickly recognize danger signs and be slower to dismiss what seems like bungling, and to subsequently interdict VNSA attempts to adopt technologies that pose the greatest risks.
