TransportationTransportation Beliefs of 20 Years Ago Largely Myths, Today’s Predictions Will Be as Well
As long as humans have been moving, there have been fantastic predictions about how technology will revolutionize transportation. Most of them turn out to be myths. A new study revisits an influential article that called out widely held transportation predictions of 20 years ago as myths, finding it is still highly accurate.
As long as humans have been moving, there have been fantastic predictions about how technology will revolutionize transportation. Most of them turn out to be myths. A University of Kansas researcher has written a study revisiting an influential article that called out widely held transportation predictions of 20 years ago as myths, finding it is still highly accurate.
In 2000, influential transportation geography scholar William Black published “An Unpopular Essay on Transportation.” The highly cited study argued that nine popularly held beliefs about the future of transportation at the time were just myths. Bradley Lane, associate professor of public affairs & administration at KU, revisited that study for a 25th-anniversary commemorative issue of the Journal of Transport Geography. Black was quite accurate in his predictions, Lane said.
“Black identified what he thought of as nine myths in transportation at the time. Some related to sustainability, some not. In hindsight, some were laughable,” Lane said. “Others were not as much, but especially ideas like ethanol could replace oil, because there’s only X amount of arable land to produce corn and the idea that telecommunications technology could greatly reduce the need for transport were not realistic.”
KU says that in his study, Lane details how five of the nine beliefs Black identified have solidly proven to be myths, while four still have potential to improve sustainable transportation. Lane also dissects the current idea of three revolutions of transportation, their potential for being realized and whether they are likely to make things worse before making them better.
The five popular transport beliefs in 2000 that still prove to be myths:
· Ethanol fuel will reduce CO2 emissions
· Telecommuting will reduce urban travel
· Globalization will reduce urban travel
· Transit ridership will grow with an aging population
· Communication technology will reduce the need and amount of personal travel.
Four beliefs that have potential:
· Intelligent transport systems will help achieve sustainable transport
· Transport investments lead to nearby economic development
· Investments in transport are “safe” investments
· Connecting geographically remote places will stimulate local economies.
