ArgumentWhy the 2020 Election Will Be a Mess: It’s Just Too Easy for Putin
FBI Director Christopher Wray testified to the House Judiciary Committee last week that Russia’s disinformation campaign to interfere in the 2020 election is underway. Alex Finley, John Sipher, and Asha Rangappa write that this isn’t surprising, given that Russian active measures are about the long game: “Ex-KGB officer and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal was never simply to place a Manchurian candidate in the Oval Office, but rather to permanently destabilize the West, damage U.S. credibility, and undermine those very things that make democratic countries special.” They add: “We can be confident that “the 2020 election cycle will provide the Kremlin opportunities to pursue further subversion, disinformation, and deception.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray testified to the House Judiciary Committee last week that Russia’s disinformation campaign to interfere in the 2020 election is underway. Alex Finley, John Sipher, and Asha Rangappa write in Just Security that this isn’t surprising, given that Russian active measures are about the long game: “Ex-KGB officer and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal was never simply to place a Manchurian candidate in the Oval Office, but rather to permanently destabilize the West, damage U.S. credibility, and undermine those very things that make democratic countries special.”
The add:
Putin aimed for chaos, and Donald Trump was the chaos candidate in 2016. But Putin will continue to attack, namely because his objectives haven’t changed and the United States has not done anything to defend or deter him from this course of action. The only difference this time around is that, after four years of Trump, generating chaos will be even easier to achieve, as Trump and his surrogates have adopted the same playbook. Republicans know they are working in parallel with Russian intelligence, even if they are not working hand in hand. Republicans may insist to themselves there is a difference, but practically speaking, there isn’t. The only way to neutralize this threat is through public awareness of Russia’s tactics and increased civic participation.
The three authors write that the best way to assess the Russian threat in the future is to assess the data we already have from the past.
From our experience in 2016, we know Russian intelligence probed election computer systems in all 50 states. We also know the Kremlin stole emails from the Democratic Party, fed the material to WikiLeaks and others who could disperse it publicly, and then leveraged the information in a massive propaganda and influence campaign.
Russian intelligence ran a further influence campaign using social media, trolls, and bots to amplify the propaganda and to influence individuals to take actions in the United States, including hiring actors to portray Hillary Clinton in a mock jail cell on the back of a pickup truck at rallies. Russians with links to the Kremlin infiltrated conservative groups, such as the National Rifle Association and American evangelical organizations, and made various approaches to the Trump campaign.
The authors note that Russian intelligence also stole Republican Party material which the Russian agencies have yet to weaponize.
The authors say that we can be confident that “the 2020 election cycle will provide the Kremlin opportunities to pursue further subversion, disinformation, and deception.”
