Climate Change Poses “High-to-Catastrophic” Security Threats to U.S. Security: Experts

3. While at lower warming thresholds, the most fragile parts of the world are the most at risk, all regions of the world will face serious implications. High warming scenarios could bring about catastrophic security impacts across the globe.

4. These threats could come about rapidly, destabilizing the regions and relationships on which U.S. and international security depend.

5. Climate change will present significant threats to U.S. military missions across all of its geographic areas of responsibility (AORs), as well as to regional security institutions and infrastructure that are critical for maintaining global security.

Key Recommendations

1. Mitigating these risks requires quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions. We call for the world to achieve net-zero global emissions as soon as possible in a manner that is ambitious, safe, equitable, and well-governed, in order to avoid severe and catastrophic security futures.

2. The world must also “climate-proof” environments, infrastructure, institutions, and systems on which human security depends, and so we call for rapidly building resilience to current and expected impacts of climate change. With future-oriented investments in adaptation, disaster response, and peacebuilding

3. In the United States, we call for renewed efforts to prioritize, communicate, and respond to climate security threats, and to integrate these considerations across all security planning.

Highlighting the key findings of the report, members of the National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP) stated:

U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands
The climate security risks posed to each region of the world are assessed in the report through the lens of the U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands. Topline risks for each area of responsibility are summarized below.

AFRICOM

·  Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely see rapid loss of rural livelihoods, disease, resource stress, and migration. In this scenario, violent extremist groups bolster their numbers, and security threats spiral into nearby fragile areas.

·  Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience new and renewed interstate conflict over water resources, and severe humanitarian crises resulting from migrating populations, weather disasters, and economic shocks. Security institutions may not be able to preserve stability in the region.

CENTCOM

·  Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely experience dangerous levels of temperature rise, drought, and dwindling water supplies that intensify already tense resource, political, and territorial competition.

·  Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience temperatures levels that render many areas of the region uninhabitable, competition over water resources, large-scale populations displacement, and social unrest leading to enduring conflicts and state failure.

EUCOM

·  Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely experience severe weather that threatens destabilization of its key economic sectors, rising regional inequality, migration and ethno-nationalist responses, and negative impacts on civil and military infrastructure.

·  Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience prolonged drought and rising seas, significant internal displacement, and an influx of migrants from neighboring areas. A breakdown in regional political, institutional, and security cohesion becomes more likely.

INDOPACOM

·  Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will experience water scarcity in some areas and precipitation inundation in others, posing risks to security infrastructure, social stability, and tensions between regional powers.

·  Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience devastating sea level rise threatening its megacities, infrastructure, and populations, and the resulting displacement and securitization of state borders.

NORTHCOM

·  Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will experience more intense, extreme events like storms and wildfires, with significant impacts on life, property, security infrastructure, and democratic institutions.

·  Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience extreme heat, sea level rise, and disaster events, with severe impact on critical and security infrastructure. The region would become increasingly divided, and potentially entangled in resource competitions.

SOUTHCOM

·  Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely experience extreme heat and drought, forcing communities to migrate in search of new opportunities, with transnational criminal groups, and narcotics and human traffickers taking advantage of growing destabilization.

·  Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience even more acute weather instability, crop collapse, and spreading disease. These issues, along with failing agriculture, will increase the likelihood of violent conflict, drive significant internal and cross-border migration, and increase political instability.