EpidemicsWHO Notes COVID-19 Pandemic Potential as 5 More Mideast Nations Affected

Published 25 February 2020

Five more countries in the Middle East yesterday reported their first COVID-19 cases, all linked to Iran travel, signaling an escalating situation in the region in the wake of Iran’s outbreak, as World Health Organization (WHO) officials yesterday announced that, although the global situation isn’t yet a pandemic,  the world should prepare for one. Elsewhere, the pace of newly reported cases of the novel coronavirus continued to surge in South Korea and Italy, though cases are declining in China, where a WHO-led international joint mission wrapped up its visit and shared its initial findings yesterday.

Five more countries in the Middle East yesterday reported their first COVID-19 cases, all linked to Iran travel, signaling an escalating situation in the region in the wake of Iran’s outbreak, as World Health Organization (WHO) officials yesterday announced that, although the global situation isn’t yet a pandemic,  the world should prepare for one.

Elsewhere, the pace of newly reported cases of the novel coronavirus continued to surge in South Korea and Italy, though cases are declining in China, where a WHO-led international joint mission wrapped up its visit and shared its initial findings yesterday.

WHO Calls China Decline Real
At a media telebriefing in Geneva yesterday, WHO Director-Feneral Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said the team learned more about the transmissibility of the virus, its severity, and the measures China took. He said the decline in China’s cases is real, and that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between Jan 23 and Feb 2 and has been steadily declining since then.

He said the agency found that the fatality rate ranges from 2 percent to 4 percent in Wuhan, but is lower at 0.7 percent outside of the city. For people with mild disease, recovery takes about 2 weeks, but patients who experience severe or critical disease it may take 3 to 6 weeks to recover.

The WHO concluded that China’s strict measures averted a significant number of cases, Tedros said, adding that the team highlights remaining unanswered questions and makes 22 recommendations. He said joint mission leader Bruce Aylward, MD, MPH, will brief reporters on more details.

Addressing speculation on whether the recent escalating events constitute a pandemic, Tedros said health officials are still gauging the geographic spread, disease severity, and COVID-19’s impact on societies. “For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale disease or death,” he said.

CIDRAP notes that though the sudden surges in in some parts of the world are concerning, the word “pandemic” doesn’t fit the facts and may raise fears, he said. Rather, he said as the WHO continuously monitors the epidemic, countries must make their own risk assessments, with an eye toward prioritizing three things: protecting healthcare workers, protecting people most at risk (older people and those with chronic health conditions), and protecting countries with weaker health systems.

Mike Ryan, MD, who directs the WHO’s health emergencies program, said making a pandemic decision for an influenza virus would be