ArgumentWhy the 2020 Election Will Be A Mess, Part II: Beyond Russian Disinformation
In 2016, an effective Russian disinformation campaign helped Donald Trump win the presidential election. What would the next iteration of Russia’s effort look like? Alex Finley, Asha Rangappa, and John Sipher write that an influence campaign “is only one piece of Russia’s larger use of political warfare. Russia’s full active-measures toolkit—one that goes back to the Soviet Union’s KGB—includes subversion, espionage, sabotage, propaganda, deception, provocation, spreading of rumors and conspiracy, weaponization of social media, and even assassination and promotion of violence.” The three authors write that a look at Russia’s actions in Europe and past practice “suggests the United States should prepare for the worst.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray recently testified that the Bureau had made domestic terrorism a higher priority in its national threat matrix. As he stated, “Trends may shift, but the underlying drivers for domestic violent extremism such as perceptions of government or law enforcement overreach, socio-political conditions, racism, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, and reactions to legislative actions—remain constant.”
Alex Finley, Asha Rangappa, and John Sipher, writing in Just Security, ask: How does this intersect with Russia’s goal to interfere in the 2020 election?
“First, the big picture: While there has been much discussion about Russia’s use of disinformation as a weapon to interfere in Western elections, it is only one piece of Russia’s larger use of political warfare,” they write. “Russia’s full active-measures toolkit—one that goes back to the Soviet Union’s KGB—includes subversion, espionage, sabotage, propaganda, deception, provocation, spreading of rumors and conspiracy, weaponization of social media, and even assassination and promotion of violence.”
The authors write that these tools are used in combination to weaken the Kremlin’s enemies and advance Russia’s political and foreign policy interests. “As we discussed in our last article, Russian disinformation will be used to exploit an already polarized U.S. society and to manufacture outrage. Of course, as anger in the U.S. grows, the threat of political violence also builds, providing the Russian government another opportunity to use a familiar tactic to divide the country.”
The add:
We know from 2016 that Russia’s disinformation campaign applies pressure precisely on the most politically divisive issues that will most effectively drive Americans apart. But as Special Counsel Robert Mueller detailed, some of its efforts went beyond encouraging passive consumption of divisive material to encouraging people to take action. For example, Russia manipulated Americans to participate in protests on opposite sides of emotionally charged issues—like immigration, or Black Lives Matter—at the same time and same place, likely with the hope that the confrontations might turn violent. In the lead up to the 2018 midterm elections, the FBI uncovered Project Lakhta, a disinformation campaign that had as one of its talking points encouragement of “civil war” in the event that President Donald Trump was impeached as a result of Mueller’s findings. This exhortation has alarmingly been echoed at times by Trump supporters and Fox News commentators. Trump himself has pushed the notion that the country could fall into civil war if he is removed from office. On cue, Russian state media repeated this, no doubt thrilled that their agitations had entered the mainstream.
So, what would the next iteration of Russia’s effort look like? The authors say that a look at Russia’s actions in Europe and past practice “suggests the United States should prepare for the worst. Russian military intelligence has been involved in destabilization efforts across Europe, including assassinations and insurgencies.”
