COVID-19: U.K. ResponseCoronavirus: The U.K. Approach Explained
Faced with the coronavirus epidemic, China and Italy have imposed draconian measures which, in China at least, now seem to be having an effect. These measures, however, have enormous economic and social costs. The U.K. has, so far at least, adopted a different approach: When a virus passes through most of the population, infected individuals develop antibodies to the infection, and the population as a whole thus acquires herd immunity. This means that enough people have been infected and developed an immune response so that there is nowhere left for the virus to go, and circulation stops. In theory, a prolonged lockdown, by slowing virus circulation, could mean a population never gets herd immunity, and so the lockdown has to continue indefinitely, or until a vaccine is developed. Health experts say that between 30 percent and 80 percent of the U.K. population will eventually get infected – but that 99 percent of them will recover completely after experiencing only slight discomfort, with only about 1 percent, or 53,000 people (in the event of 80 percent infection) requiring some medical attention. The reward of this approach: less economic and social disruption, and herd immunity which buys scientists more time to develop a vaccine and treatments.
Boris Johnson, the U.K. prime minister, has warned that many families will lose loved ones to the new coronavirus, but the country’s government is not yet taking the drastic measures against it that have been seen elsewhere. This has left many people bewildered.
Why isn’t there a lockdown like in Italy? Must things get worse? What about closing schools? If we are all going to get the virus anyway, why bother with all the hand washing and other measures? Isn’t this just like a bad flu outbreak?
In a rapidly evolving situation like this, it can be difficult to understand why different countries seem to be adopting very different responses to the crisis.
It’s now clear that there is approximately one COVID-19 death for every 100 patients diagnosed, but this 1 percent mortality rate is likely an overestimate. For every patient we know of, there are probably ten to 20 people with very mild or no symptoms who don’t get diagnosed at all. The mortality rate could end up being lower.
But a big difference between COVID-19 and seasonal flu is that only 10 percent of the population suffer from flu each year. This is because many of us have pre-existing immunity – our body has fought off previous flu viruses and this gives us some protection against new ones. No one has met the new coronavirus before, so we have no pre-existing defenses, and this leads to much larger outbreaks.
The U.K.’s Response
Faced with this epidemic, what should the U.K. government do? In China and Italy where the situation quickly ran out of control, draconian measures have been introduced, which in China at least, now seem to be having an effect. These include restricting people’s movements; stopping mass gatherings; and closing work places, schools and universities.
The issue for the U.K. is, should the government introduce similar measures now, when there are still fewer than 1,500 cases in a population of 66 million? It could ban mass meetings, stop all public transport, close schools, universities and workplaces, and confine everyone to their homes. The protest group Pause the System has been pushing for this sort of approach. And British people are now being discouraged from going to pubs, theatres and restaurants that remain open.
