COVID-19: U.K. ResponseHalf of U.K. Population May Already Be Infected: Oxford Study
A model developed by Oxford University researchers indicates that half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If follow-up studies confirm the modeling’s conclusions, it would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing only minor symptoms, if any.
Testing rates differ widely from one country to another, making it difficult to determine the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19. Modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some needed good news.
The Financial Times reports that a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If follow-up studies confirm the modeling’s conclusions, it would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing only minor symptoms, if any.
The Oxford researchers say that the coronavirus arrived in the United Kingdom in mid-January at the latest, and, for 4-5 weeks, spread undetected before the first cases were confirmed. Using a susceptibility-infected-recovery model, which is commonly used in estimating the scope of an epidemic, and data from case and death reports in the United Kingdom and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” approach of the U.K. government could have been sound.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” lead researcher Sunetra Gupta told the FT, referring to an Imperial College London academic report which, in one of its scenarios, predicted that up to 250,000 could be killed if the government maintained its plan to suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” as the country’s chief scientific adviser put it.
As of Monday, 87 people in the United Kingdom had died from the coronavirus; out of a total of 90,436 tests, 8,077 were positive.
In order to see whether their math checks out, the Oxford team is now collaborating with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.
In an interview with New York’s James Walsh, Pulitzer-winning infectious disease reporter Laurie Garrett explained the public-health necessity of antibody tests:
The most important thing is that that test can be a public-health tool. If we had this antibody test, we can go around randomly selecting people in New York City and find out how many New Yorkers, including right now, have had this virus in their bodies. Since we know the virus has never been in human beings before, anybody who has antibodies against it has been exposed since January.
If we can get this antibody test mass-produced — and I know they’re working on it right now — and put it into commercialization really quickly, this could be a game-changer for the whole pandemic. One of the things we would love to know right now is how many people who have had pneumonia since January were actually COVID cases? Having answers to that question would make a difference on a policy level. If we were suddenly seeing a surge in hidden pneumonia cases since mid-February, that would tell us we’re in deep, deep doo-doo; that this thing is like Italy; that we’re going to suddenly skyrocket and our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. But if, by contrast, the same number of cases are found in the historic samples going back to the first of January, that would tell us, “Okay, it’s gradually unfolding, we don’t have to go down to lockdown every single person in New York, we may be able to flatten the curve.” And that makes a big difference in terms of how drastic our policies need to be.
The FT notes that the Oxford modeling’s conclusions appear promising, but that is the case with other statistical models dealing with the coronavirus, the model’s conclusions should received with caution. Experts note that if the extensive antibody tests do not prove the epidemiologists’ findings – that is, if these tests do not indicate that at least half of the U.K. population is already infected – then the tentative welcome news the model offers may undercut the willingness of the public to endure measures such as social distancing which health experts consider essential to stopping the spread of the virus.
