ArgumentPandemics Can Fast Forward the Rise and Fall of Great Powers

Published 6 April 2020

Fortunately for the United States, my research shows that democracies generally outperform their autocratic competitors in great power rivalries. Still, there is no time to lose. As U.S. leaders formulate their response to the coronavirus, they must think not only in terms of the immediate public health crisis, but also about the very future of American global leadership.

Matthew Kroenig, director of the Global Strategy Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, writes in the National Interest that:

·  “How well Washington and Beijing manage the ramifications of the coronavirus in the weeks ahead may determine who leads the international system decades hence. After all, as I explain in a new book [Matthew Kroening, The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy versus Autocracy from the Ancient World to the U.S. and China (Oxford UP, March 2020)], global pandemics have contributed to the rise and fall of great powers in the past.”

·  “In the Peloponnesian War with its rival Sparta Athens was struck by the plague in 430 BC. … Prior to the outbreak, Athens appeared on the verge of victory, but weakened by the affliction, it sued for a temporary peace in 421 BC. When the fighting resumed, Athens was eventually defeated, and its democratic form of government overthrown by the victorious Spartans.”

·  “Like Athens Venice contended unsuccessfully with repeated bouts of the plague. The Italian Plague of 1629 to 1631, was believed to have originated in China and spread West over Silk Road trading routes. … The Italian Plague contributed to a major shift in the European balance of power as Venice declined and Northern European states, such as England and the Dutch Republic, rose to become major geopolitical powers.”

·  “Fortunately for the United States, my research shows that democracies generally outperform their autocratic competitors in great power rivalries. Still, there is no time to lose. As U.S. leaders formulate their response to the coronavirus, they must think not only in terms of the immediate public health crisis, but also about the very future of American global leadership.”