PerspectiveCoronavirus Disease 2019: The Harms of Exaggerated Information and Non‐Evidence‐Based Measures
Those arguing in favor of lockdowns say that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system, which otherwise might be overwhelmed. John P. A. Ioannidis writes in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, however, that vaccines take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. “Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course,” he writes. “Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns long-term.” He also notes that different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. The only unique aspect of this year’s coronavirus outbreak is the unprecedented attention it has received in the media.
Those arguing in favor of lockdowns say that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system, which otherwise might be overwhelmed. John P. A. Ioannidis writes in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, however, that vaccines take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. “Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course,” he writes. “Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns long-term.”
He adds:
Leading figures insist that the current situation is a once‐in‐a‐century pandemic. A corollary might be that any reaction to it, no matter how extreme, is justified.
This year’s coronavirus outbreak is clearly unprecedented in amount of attention received. Media have capitalized on curiosity, uncertainty and horror. A Google search with “coronavirus” yielded 3 550 000 000 results on March 3 and 9 440 000 000 results on March 14. Conversely, “influenza” attracted 30‐to 60‐fold less attention although this season it has caused so far more deaths globally than coronavirus.
Different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. A serological analysis1 of CoV 229E and OC43 in 4 adult populations under surveillance for acute respiratory illness during the winters of 1999‐2003 (healthy young adults, healthy elderly adults, high‐risk adults with underlying cardiopulmonary disease and a hospitalized group) showed annual infection rates ranging from 2.8% to 26% in prospective cohorts, and prevalence of 3.3%‐11.1% in the hospitalized cohort. Case fatality of 8% has been described in outbreaks among nursing home elderly. Leaving the well‐known and highly lethal SARS and MERS coronaviruses aside, other coronaviruses probably have infected millions of people and have killed thousands. However, it is only this year that every single case and every single death gets red alert broadcasting in the news.
