Out of LockdownsEuropeans Start Feeling a Way Out of Coronavirus Lockdowns
European governments are rolling out plans outlining how they will start to cautiously unlock their countries and fire up their economies, but the lifting of lockdowns is being complicated by a string of studies suggesting that even in cities and regions hit hard by the coronavirus, only a small fraction of the population has contracted the infection. That presents governments with exactly the same dilemma they faced when the virus first appeared: Lock down and wreck the economy to save lives and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with the sick, or, allow the virus to do its worst and watch health care systems buckle and the death toll mount. There had been hope that sizable numbers — many more than confirmed cases — had contracted the virus, protecting them with some immunity, even if temporary, from reinfection. That would help ease the complications of gradually lifting restrictions.
European governments are rolling out plans outlining how they will start to cautiously unlock their countries and fire up their economies, but the lifting of lockdowns is being complicated by a string of studies suggesting that even in cities and regions hit hard by the coronavirus, only a small fraction of the population has contracted the infection.
That presents governments with exactly the same dilemma they faced when the virus first appeared: Lock down and wreck the economy to save lives and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with the sick, or, allow the virus to do its worst and watch health care systems buckle and the death toll mount.
There had been hope that sizable numbers — many more than confirmed cases — had contracted the virus, protecting them with some immunity, even if temporary, from reinfection. That would help ease the complications of gradually lifting restrictions.
“The choice we face is no different to the one we faced at the beginning,” noted British commentator Daniel Finkelstein, a onetime adviser to former British Prime Minister John Major. “How long can we socially, economically and politically sustain the lockdown before we decide that the cure is worse than the disease?”
It is a question every government is asking.
Hopes of swift exits from lockdowns have been dealt a blow in Europe, as well as in the United States and Asia, by a series of studies indicating how few have been exposed so far to the coronavirus, thanks to the lockdowns. A study in California by public health officials and scientists at Stanford University and the University of Southern California suggests that 2.5% to 4% of residents in Santa Clara County, south of San Francisco, and Los Angeles County have had the virus.
A French study suggests less than 6% of France’s population will have been infected by the coronavirus by the time the country begins to unlock slowly in May, according to a study led by the prestigious Pasteur Institute. That would mean few people would have developed any possible immunity by the time the lockdown ends, meaning that if people mix more, more will contract the virus and more will go on to develop the disease COVID-19.
