Post-lockdownLife after Lockdowns

Published 30 April 2020

In many things 90 percent is just fine; in an economy it is miserable. The 90 percent economy. It is better than a severe lockdown, but it is far from normal. The missing bits include large chunks of everyday life. Rides on the metro and on domestic flights are down by a third. Discretionary consumer spending, on such things as restaurants, has fallen by 40 percent and hotel stays are a third of normal. People are weighed down by financial hardship and the fear of a second wave of covid-19. Bankruptcies are rising and unemployment, one broker has said, is three times the official level, at around 20 percent. The Economist writes that if the post-lockdown rich world suffers its own brand of the 90 percent economy, life will be hard—at least until a vaccine or a treatment is found. A plunge in GDP in America of anything like 10 percent would be the largest since the second world war. The more suffering COVID-19 causes, the more profound and enduring its economic, social and political effects are likely to be. “How lockdowns ease will itself affect the scale of economic damage,” the Economist notes. “For instance, the cost-benefit calculus points towards opening schools first (see article). But, however sensibly restrictions are eased, powerful forces will hold economies back.”