TerrorismIslamic State Could Be about to Hit Back – and the World Is Paying Little Attention
In the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic the crises of tomorrow can fester. A resurgence of Islamic State (IS) is likely to be one of them. The threat of a resurgent IS is mounting and governments around the world could be about to make the same mistake again of missing it and reacting too late.
In the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic the crises of tomorrow can fester. A resurgence of Islamic State (IS) is likely to be one of them.
In recent weeks, IS has carried out a spate of attacks on security forces in Iraq and different areas of Syria. There are striking similarities between these current developments and events that happened in 2013-14 as IS seized huge swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria.
The threat of a resurgent IS is mounting and governments around the world could be about to make the same mistake again of missing it and reacting too late. Based on my ongoing research investigating why the rise of IS in 2013 came as a strategic surprise to European governments, I’ve identified the seven most eye-catching parallels between 2013 and today.
1. Declared Dead Prematurely
After the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011, the various branches of al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Sahel and Maghreb refocused more locally. The remaining leadership directly addressed grievances against their respective local governments. Al-Qaida seemed to be on the defensive and leaders in Europe and the US expected it to stop posing a national threat.
Similarly to today, it was misleading to hope that IS would decline after its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in October 2019 in a US special forces raid. Like when it emerged out of al-Qaida in Iraq, IS might very well resurge under its new leader, Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli al-Salbi.
2. Risk of Prison Breaks
One of IS’s most successful operations was its 2012-13 prison escape campaign Breaking the Walls to free veteran fighters. The campaign was remarkable due to its length and level of organization, including the major break of Abu Ghraib, Iraq in July 2013 in which more than 500 prisoners escaped.
The IS prisons in northern Syria are currently run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the primarily Kurdish militia that defeated IS with the support of the west. Overcrowded and understaffed, the SDF has called these prisons a ticking time bomb.
According to Iraqi intelligence, IS has been preparing a prison break campaign, which it calls Break Down the Fences. A systematic prison break campaign similar to Breaking the Walls could pave the way for a resurgence of IS in Iraq and Syria.
