The BriefThe German Way; Antigen Tests; HCQ Disappointments; Promise of Anti-Inflammatory Drugs
These seven developments and topics on the coronavirus front caught our eye last week:
1. Germany shows the way. Germany, led by a low-key, competent, steady, truth-telling, self-effacing, and empathetic former scientist (Angela Merkel was a professor of physical chemistry before entering politics) was a leader in the West in taking on the coronavirus pandemic, and now it is leading the way in a measured, calibrated reopening of the economy and restarting of public life.
2. Predicting the pandemic’s next phase. Two studies paint a picture of how the pandemic could play out. Both studies see a future – about 2-3 years — typified by waves, or peaks and valleys, with social distancing turned on and off based on the number of infection cases.
3. Mysterious young-children syndrome. Three young children have died in New York of a mysterious syndrome with links to the coronavirus. Doctors s call it “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome.”
4. FDA approves antigen test. In a significant move which holds the promise of greatly expanded testing capacity in the United States, the Food and Drug Administration has approved the first antigen test which can rapidly detect whether a person has been infected by the coronavirus.
5. Effectiveness of antiviral drugs cocktail. In a new study published in The Lancet, researchers in Hong Kong reported that patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 appear to improve more rapidly if they were treated with a cocktail of antiviral drugs, compared with a group receiving a mix containing fewer drugs.
6. Hydroxychloroquine continues to disappoint. Another large clinical trial shows what all other previous clinical trials have so far demonstrated: hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are yet to prove their effectiveness in treating COVID-19.
7. Promising COVID-19 treatments. Scientists are looking at anti-inflammatory medicines as a potential ingredient in an effective combination therapy. One possible anti-inflammatory treatment is tocilizumab, sold by Roche as Actemra and currently prescribed people suffering from arthritis.
These seven developments and topics on the coronavirus front caught our eye last week:
1. Germany shows the way. Germany, led by a low-key, competent, steady, truth-telling, self-effacing, and empathetic former scientist (Angela Merkel was a professor of physical chemistry before entering politics) was a leader in the West in taking on the coronavirus pandemic, and now it is leading the way in a measured, calibrated reopening of the economy and restarting of public life.
Last Wednesday Merkel told the German people that her policies were working, and that Germany was now in a position to reopen most aspects of its economy and society.
“We can afford a little audacity,” Merkel said.
Germany’s successful strategy is a good model for countries plotting how resume normal, or near-normal, life which, for a while yet, will be conducted with the continuing presence of the virus. But it was also a stark reminder of the differences between the Germany methodical, orderly approach and that of other Western countries, with the exception of Sweden, which has taken a different approach altogether.
Germany’s approach contrasted sharply with the U.S. botched response to the epidemic. Merkel’s science-led, evidence-based approach – Prof. Merkel believes in scientific evidence and observable facts, not in “hunches” – has won her praise from across the political spectrum in Germany and Europe. Scientists and policy analysts say the United States would have been far better off now had the White House not dismissed the coronavirus as “just like the flu” which would infect only “15 people” in the United States, and instead focused on implementing a regimen of widespread testing, tracing, and social distancing.
2. Predicting the pandemic’s next phase. Two studies paint a picture of how the pandemic could play out. The first, by researchers from the University of Minnesota, describes three possibilities following the current wave of initial cases: (a) “peaks and valleys” which gradually diminish over a year or two; (b) a larger peak in the fall or winter, with smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic; (c) or an intense spring peak followed by a “slow burn” with less-pronounced ups and downs.
