The German Way; Antigen Tests; HCQ Disappointments; Promise of Anti-Inflammatory Drugs

These seven developments and topics on the coronavirus front caught our eye last week:

1. Germany shows the way. Germany, led by a low-key, competent, steady, truth-telling, self-effacing, and empathetic former scientist (Angela Merkel was a professor of physical chemistry before entering politics) was a leader in the West in taking on the coronavirus pandemic, and now it is leading the way in a measured, calibrated reopening of the economy and restarting of public life.

Last Wednesday Merkel told the German people that her policies were working, and that Germany was now in a position to reopen most aspects of its economy and society.

“We can afford a little audacity,” Merkel said.

Germany’s successful strategy is a good model for countries plotting how resume normal, or near-normal, life which, for a while yet, will be conducted with the continuing presence of the virus. But it was also a stark reminder of the differences between the Germany methodical, orderly approach and that of other Western countries, with the exception of Sweden, which has taken a different approach altogether.

Germany’s approach contrasted sharply with the U.S. botched response to the epidemic. Merkel’s science-led, evidence-based approach – Prof. Merkel believes in scientific evidence and observable facts, not in “hunches” – has won her praise from across the political spectrum in Germany and Europe. Scientists and policy analysts say the United States would have been far better off now had the White House not dismissed the coronavirus as “just like the flu” which would infect only “15 people” in the United States, and instead focused on implementing a regimen of widespread testing, tracing, and social distancing.

2. Predicting the pandemic’s next phase. Two studies paint a picture of how the pandemic could play out. The first, by researchers from the University of Minnesota, describes three possibilities following the current wave of initial cases: (a) “peaks and valleys” which gradually diminish over a year or two; (b) a larger peak in the fall or winter, with smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic; (c) or an intense spring peak followed by a “slow burn” with less-pronounced ups and downs.