ArgumentCrisis Response When the Status Quo Is a Crisis
As the world experiences a global pandemic in the form of the novel coronavirus, the focus of most governments has understandably been on the health implications of this virus, and on the economic fallout of the lockdowns and other mitigation measures taken to stop its spread. Tellis Bethel and Ian Ralby write that there are two major issues whose careful consideration becomes more necessary by the day: security matters and natural disasters. “If the status quo is a pervasive disaster, how can we cope with incidental or episodic emergencies? Few states, if any, are ready for the challenge,” they write.
If the 2016 earthquake in Italy repeated today, how would the country respond while being on lockdown? If a hurricane like Irma, Maria, or Dorian hit the Caribbean now, what regional and international partners could even respond to help? If a storm like Sandy hit the United States right now, how overwhelmed would New York and New Jersey be? Tellis Bethel and Ian Ralby write in War on the Rocks that as the world experiences a global pandemic in the form of the novel coronavirus, the focus of most governments has understandably been on the health implications of this virus, and on the economic fallout of the lockdowns and other mitigation measures taken to stop its spread.
But there are two major issues whose careful consideration becomes more necessary by the day: security matters and natural disasters. Criminals are likely to capitalize on new opportunities created by the dramatic change in the status quo. The same is true of terrorist organizations, with regard to both financing and attacks. Yet how much are security forces able to operate or react at the moment? And even beyond these security concerns, natural disasters may be a bigger threat to exceeding current capacity. Hurricanes, cyclones, and tornadoes will hit, earthquakes will strike, and volcanoes will erupt, pandemic or no pandemic. Now immersed in an indefinite global health crisis, every leader has to answer this question: If the status quo is a pervasive disaster, how can we cope with incidental or episodic emergencies? Few states, if any, are ready for the challenge.
Bethel and Ralby write that now that a global pandemic is a current reality rather than a historical oddity, new approaches to, and procedures for, law enforcement and disaster response are needed. Preparation, proactive rethinking, and consciously letting go of normal assumptions will help reduce the possibility of failure by states, even with limited resources.
By stretching beyond the limits of what seems possible, and working to confront the overwhelming challenge of addressing a pandemic, a natural disaster, and a security incident at the same time, states may actually develop policies and procedures that make them more efficient overall — and certainly better able to handle a single emergency. In other words, working to maximize efficiency and effectiveness to handle compound emergencies may improve the state’s “normal” functioning as well. Furthermore, as every country on earth is experiencing significant strategic shock from this pandemic, there is great scope for global cooperation in exchanging lessons, good practices, and cautionary tales. Ultimately, the extent to which states marshal creativity and overlooked resources to address compound emergencies is the extent to which they save, or lose, human lives.
