MegadisastersComing Soon? A Brief Guide to Twenty-First-Century Megadisasters
When it comes to calamities, Jeffrey Schlegelmilch thinks big. In his upcoming book, Rethinking Readiness: A Brief Guide to Twenty-First-Century Megadisasters, he explores menaces that potentially could change not just lives or communities, but entire societies. He groups these into five categories: climate change; cyber threats; nuclear war; failures of critical infrastructure such as electric grids; and biological perils including pandemics. Schlegelmilch answered questions about megadisasters in light of recent events.
When it comes to calamities, Jeffrey Schlegelmilch thinks big. In his upcoming book, Rethinking Readiness: A Brief Guide to Twenty-First-Century Megadisasters, he explores menaces that potentially could change not just lives or communities, but entire societies. He groups these into five categories: climate change; cyber threats; nuclear war; failures of critical infrastructure such as electric grids; and biological perils including pandemics.
Schlegelmilch, director of Columbia University’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness, has devoted his career to thinking about catastrophe. Trained in business and public health, he worked previously, among other things, as an epidemiologist and emergency planner. Schlegelmilch wrote the book before the coronavirus emerged. Columbia University Earth Institute’s State of the Planet spoke with him in light of what has since happened.
Kevin Krajick: Will the disasters of the 21st century be different from those of the past?
Jeffrey Schlegelmilch: The disasters we are seeing are already different than in the past. We can see this through more and more billion-dollar weather events, more spending on disaster response and recovery, more lives disrupted. This is because human activity is contributing to both the underlying threats, and our vulnerability to them. Climate change is one example. We are pumping pollutants into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates, leading to more extreme weather events. At the same time, we are building in flood zones and other hazard-prone areas. This dynamic is not unique to climate change. Other disasters, like pandemics, have components where societal development is increasing both the threat and our vulnerability.
Krajick: What distinguishes a megadisaster from a plain old catastrophe?
Schlegelmilch: This is one of those terms with fuzzy edges that is used a lot in disaster management. In broad strokes, I think of megadisasters as those that are so large, they disrupt the very systems that are designed to respond to disasters. The book amplifies this concept a little further, defining them as disasters with society-altering potential. This can be along the lines of the Black Death in Europe, the Great Potato Famine in Ireland. These disasters do more than impact society for a while; they permanently alter the course of history.
